Better Team, Pitcher & Bullpen: Take Yankees -115 vs. Rangers

Doug Upstone

Monday, July 27, 2015 1:05 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 27, 2015 1:05 PM UTC

This ESPN Monday encounter is about two teams playing solid baseball with two starting pitchers who are still on the mend. The sportsbooks MLB odds supports the club with the better record.

Yet was we all know, just because a team is favored, as baseball handicappers and those generating sports picks understand, the outcome can often be far different. Time to delve deeper into the opener of this four-game series in the Lone Star State.


Yankees Yelpings
New York can even their road record with victory (24-25, -0.8 units) after taking series in Minnesota. This is an important trip for the Yankees with seven games remaining, as they have seen their lead in the AL East blossom to eight games in the loss column and if they can maintain that before heading home next week, Joe Girardi's club could runaway with the weaker division.

New York is 7-2 since the break and 11-3 in their last double baker's dozen, with their pitching mostly carrying them in allowing 3.6 runs per game in this period compared to 4.3 on the season. Today is Alex Rodriquez 40th birthday and like many players, A-Rod plays better knowing there are candles to be blown out, batting .340 (17-for-50) with 5 HR's, 15 RBI's and 13 runs scored. However, the Yankees would not be in first place and up +3.5 units against the betting odds without Brett Gardner (.295 BA and .373 OBP) and Mark Teixeira (24 HR's and 65 RBI's).


Rangers Roundup
Texas has played four fewer home games than any team in baseball. The way the season has unfolded, the Rangers wish they could keep it that way since they might be the best road team and bet in the majors at 31-24 and +21.8 units, but they have the poorest home record at 16-26 and lost -10.3 units.

Texas opens a 10-game homestand but the competition could hardly be more rugged, facing the Yankees and two other teams within a game of first place in their divisions in San Francisco and rival Houston.

The Rangers are going to need a lot of contributions to win this game and have a successful homestand and it starts with Prince Fielder (.337 BA, .406 OBP and 65 RBI's) and he is hitting .353 with eight home runs, 25 RBI's and a .671 slugging percentage against the Yankees, which his highest average and slugging percentage against any team.

Looking for more betting action? Check out our MLB picks of the day here! 

Nova vs. Harrison
Ivan Nova (2-3, 3.34 ERA) is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has made five starts. His last was his best since the first one, allowing two runs on three hits over six innings against Baltimore. Never a real hard thrower, Nova has only 15 strikeouts in nearly 30 innings and is as wild as usual with 10 walks. He is clearly still searching to be the pitcher we was in 2011-12 when he was 28-12. Nova is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA against the Texas.

Matt Harrison's comeback is also continuing and just being able to pitch in the big leagues was a plus after two surgeries and getting his first win since May 8th of last year has to be satisfying six days ago. The left-hander has not shown anything close to the 93-94 MPH fastball of two seasons ago, but is working on keeping the ball low with movement to get batters out. He's 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA against New York.


Betting Odds and Outcome
Most odds makers opened New York as -120 road favorites, though Heritagesports was at -115. Texas swept the Yanks in the Bronx earlier, thus motivation will not be an issue for Girardi's crew. This price range has suited New York who is 36-18 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

Texas has a shot since they are 26-16 playing against a team with a winning record, but most of that has been accomplished on the road. For MLB picks, let's take New York on the road, having the better team, starting pitcher and bullpen.

Free Pick - New York -115 at Heritage

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