Better Pitcher & Offense Makes Angels Our MLB Pick vs. Astros

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 12:12 PM GMT

Two pitchers take the mound today in Houston that have better career stats than how they have looked this season. The Angels are the underdog in this spot. Check our MLB pick here.

Betting Analysis
MLB odds experts have Los Angeles as a +135 underdog and the total around 8.5. For my selection today I'm going to back the Angels getting the plus money in this spot. Starting pitcher Hector Santiago is much better than his current numbers and Los Angeles matches up evenly if not better than Houston offensively.

 

Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago takes the mound for Los Angeles and comes in with a 5.30 ERA and 1.34 whip with the Angels hitting .259 as a team which ranks them 12th in the major leagues. Santiago is much better than his current numbers as he has a career 3.76 ERA, but he has struggled at the beginning of games a few times this season. In four out of his last five games he gave up an amazing 19 runs in just 14 innings, however in his last start he looked more like his old self allowing just one earned run off of two hits in six innings against Minnesota. On closer examination of his tough starts he hasn't been giving up a ton of hits as indicated by his decent whip but he simply hasn't been able to keep the run totals down. Still, he is better than this year's numbers so there is good value in backing him on the plus money line. At the plate Los Angeles has been steady ranking in the middle of the league in most categories ranking 12th in both batting average in hits per game. What I like about their offense though is that they do not strike out very much and they rank first in the major leagues in this category.

Houston Astros
Collin McHugh gets the start for Houston and comes in with a 4.89 ERA and 1.49 whip with the Astros hitting just .238 as a team which ranks 26th in the major leagues. Like Santiago McHugh is a bit better than his current numbers with a career 4.17 ERA and 1.28 whip. Like Santiago he has been off and on this season but is coming off a good start at St. Louis in which he allowed just one earned run in six innings. However, when matching up versus Santiago I believe the Angels have the better pitcher on the mound overall which again puts value on backing Los Angeles. At the plate Houston has had its share of struggles this season and rank in the bottom third of the major leagues in most categories. They are actually the polar opposite of the Angels ranking dead last in strikeouts per game. Houston does have the better bullpen when compared with Los Angeles but the disparity is not big enough in my opinion to make Houston a better value play. This game could really go either way which makes backing Los Angeles on the plus money line the way to go for my MLB pick.

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MLB Pick: Angels +150
Best Line Offered: at YouWager