Bets Value Picks of the Day for Friday, May 19th

Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer

Mark Lathrop

Friday, May 19, 2017 1:20 PM GMT

Friday, May. 19, 2017 1:20 PM GMT

Our handicapper had a play canceled yesterday with a pitching change - a reminder to pay attention to your wagers. There is action on Friday night though, as Mark Lathrop finds some excellent MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/cPz8Ne4p35w", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]   Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros

 

The Houston Astros start a weekend series against Cleveland on Friday night after a needed day off on Thursday. Our MLB handicapper likes the pitching matchup in favor of the home team in this one.

Charlie Morton starts this game for the Houston Astros, and he is coming off a great start in which I was backing him in beating the Yankees. All of the same things apply in this game and with his increase in velocity, the best K/9 rate in his career, and 3.33 FIP Morton has everything going for him here. Morton is being very tough on lefties on the season allowing only a .187 batting average. His BAA against right-handers still leaves a bit to be desired at .294, although that split drops to .266 at home.

Trevor Bauer takes the mound for the Indians in this game, owner of a 3-4 record and 6.92 ERA in 39 innings pitched. A simple fade against Charlie Morton, right? That would be the simplistic way of looking at it, but a quick scan shows that Bauer has had some bad home run luck on the year and his xFIP is sitting at 3.62. xFIP differs from FIP in that it is adjusted to the average amount of home runs allowed in the league. This suggests that Bauer’s 20.5% HR/FB rate is not sustainable and he will regress to his average of almost half that. Therefore, with two capable pitchers on the mound, I will be taking the Under 8.5 still available for this game as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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   Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

 

Atlanta travels home after getting crushed on Thursday night by the Blue Jays to face the Washington Nationals, the leaders of the NL East. The Nationals are tied with the most wins away from home in the National League.

The Braves are fresh off of placing their best player, 1B Freddie Freeman, on the disabled list with a broken wrist. This will create a huge hole in their lineup, which couldn’t be worse timing with R.A. Dickey headed to the mound for the Braves in this game. Dickey has given up 3 or more earned runs in his last three starts, and he is nowhere close to being a threat to pitch a shutout. Dickey is an innings-eater for this young Atlanta squad fresh off of a shutout loss, and their 2.5 runs per game of offense will likely not be enough to beat Washington here.

Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for Washington in this game and he has given up 2 or less earned runs in seven of his eight starts on the season. He’s walked a fair amount of batters, which has elevated his FIP to 5.00 against a more sparkly 2.47 ERA. Still, giving up 2 runs will likely get the job done here so I am taking Washington to continue the Braves’ misery at -146 on the moneyline.

 

Free MLB Pick: Washington -154Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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