The situation means everything such is the case with Yankees-Orioles double-header in Baltimore. We'll lay it out, and make a free MLB pick on Game 2, contingent upon the results of Game 1.
Yankees-Orioles Game 2 Odds
As of this writing the MLB odds market was holding off on lining this game, because of the uncertainty as to its relevance. Going into Game 1 today New York still needs a victory to clinch home-field advantage in next week's AL wild-card game. If the Yanks get it with an early victory, they could very well rest their starters for Game 2, and Sunday.
The opener of this series was rained out Friday night, so the teams will play an Ernie Banks Saturday.
New York dropped three of four games earlier this week at home to Boston, avoiding the sweep with a 4-1 victory Thursday. The Yanks have already clinched a spot in next week's American League wild-card game, but the site hasn't yet been determined. If New York wins Game 1 of today's double-header, it would clinch home-field for that wild-card game, and might well rest many regulars for Game 2 and Sunday.
At 87-72 the Yanks have also already played OVER their wins OVER/UNDER for this season, which was 82.
Baltimore, meanwhile, split four games with Toronto earlier this week, winning Thursday's series finale 6-4.
At 78-81 the Orioles cannot reach their wins betting OVER/UNDER of 82.
New York leads this season series nine games to seven, with the totals splitting 7-7-2.
Game 2 Mound Match-Up
Jimenez (12-10, 4.10) is only 12-for-31 on quality starts this year, but one out away from being four for his last five. Last Sunday he held Boston to two runs through seven innings, and over his last five starts he's held foes to 10 earned runs through 30 2/3 innings.
On the season Baltimore is 17-14 in games Jimenez has started, with the UNDERS going 15-14.
In three starts this season against New York Jimenez has allowed 13 runs through 14 1/3 innings; the Orioles managed to win two of those games, with the OVERS going 2-1.
Severino (5-3, 2.77) is six-for-10 on quality starts, and one out away from being three for his last three. Last Sunday he tossed six scoreless innings against the White Sox, and over his last three starts he's allowed just three runs through 17 2/3 innings.
The Yanks are 6-4 in Severino's starts, with the UNDERS going 6-4.
This will be Severino's first-ever start against Baltimore, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
Saturday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 16th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .316 team on-base percentage, but fifth with a .425 team slugging percentage.
Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 21st against righties with a .311 team OBP but fourth with a .436 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards are 39-36 on the OVERS this season, averaging 9.6 runs per, fourth-most among all ML ballparks.
Both these teams are a little banged up at the moment, so bettors might be wise to check the lineup cards before getting down on this game.
Yanks-O's Game 2 Free Pick
We give Severino the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and New York may still need this one. So for our free MLB pick on this contest, as long as the Yanks haven't already clinched that home-field for the wild-card game, we'll take New York. But if the clinch is already in, we'd stay away from this one.
MLB Pick: Yankees