Bet Yankees & Blue Jays To Go ‘Over’ In Series Finale As Your MLB Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 14, 2016 4:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 14, 2016 4:43 PM UTC

The first two games of this series between the Yankees and Blue Jays have had differing results, but we expect offense to prevail in a fairly high scoring finale as our MLB pick.


MLB Record: 8-4, +5.28

After the two teams split the first two games of this series, we expect a relatively high scoring affair in the rubber game Thursday night when Nathan Eovaldi and the New York Yankees (4-3, 2-2 away) remain north of the border as they pay a visit to fellow right-hander Marcus Stroman and the Toronto Blue Jays (4-5, 2-3 home) at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network. The posted total at Heritage Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current MLB odds on the ‘over’ set at -115.


Two Different Results in Series So Far
Besides each team winning a game, the first two games of this series had contrasting styles also. The Yankees were the winning MLB pick in a nice pitchers’ duel in the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday with John Barbato getting the win in relief after starter Masahiro Tanaka allowed only two runs and three hits in five innings but was pulled due to running up a rather high pitch could thanks to six strikeouts and four walks.

Then, Game 2 of this series went ‘over’ and was won by the Blue Jays 7-2 last night, with starter J.A. Happ getting the win after allowing one run but seven hits plus three walks in six innings. The fact that the Blue Jays finally scored some runs and accumulated 10 hits is encouraging for the team that had the best offense in the world last year but is batting just .218 while averaging 4.33 runs this season.


Erratic Eovaldi
We now like that Toronto offensive resurgence to continue vs. Eovaldi here, as he has never been a poster child for consistency. Sure, Eovaldi is one of the hardest throwing starting pitchers in baseball with a fastball that averaged 96.6 MPH last year while topping out at 101.6 MPH, and that averaged 96.7 MPH while maxing out at 99.4 MPH in his first start here in 2016.

However, while Eovaldi can appear dominant at times, his fastball is relatively straight and that leaves him prone to being erratic. Thus, he was very fortunate to somehow finish 14-3 last season as the fact is that he did that with a 4.20 ERA and his strikeout rate was even down from prior years to 7.06 per nine innings, so the Bronx Bombers obviously gave him a ton of run support.

He does not figure to be that lucky again this year, although he did escape with a no-decision in his first start vs. the Astros despite surrendering five earned runs in five innings while laboring through 94 pitches in that short stint. And if the Blue Jays did in fact start to break out of their offensive funk last night, that would not bode well for Eovaldi either.


Is Stroman Overrated?
Now, Stroman is the ace of the Toronto staff, but has he really done enough at this point of his career to earn that honor? We are not saying that Stroman is not good Major League pitcher with the potential to be great, but he gets an awful lot or respect for a guy that has not realized that potential yet and that has a limited sampling in the majors.

And Stroman is not off to a great start this year either. Yes his opening day start looks good on paper as he went eight innings allowing three runs and six hits vs. Tampa Bay, but the Rays helped him immensely by swinging at an inordinate amount of first pitches and putting them weakly in play. Stroman faced a much more patient Red Sox lineup last time out and the results were not good as he allowed five earned runs on six hits and three walks in 5.1 innings.

Now he faces another patient lineup as the veteran, professional Yankee hitters are all good at working pitchers into deep counts, and it is especially worth noting that New York is batting .283 and averaging a whopping 7.44 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers this young season, as opposed to batting .235 and averaging a mere 2.41 runs vs. southpaws.


Both Pitchers Trending ‘Over’
Finally, both of those starting pitchers are trending ‘over’ as it has gone a perfect 5-0 in Eovaldi’s last five road starts as well as 6-0 in Stroman’s last six starts overall! The ‘over’ is also 4-1 in the Yankees’ last five games following a loss, as well as 11-5-5 in the Blue Jays’ last 21 games on astroturf.

Given the potential red flags that both of the starting pitchers possess, look for those ‘over’ patterns to continue for at least one more game when the New York Yankees again visit the Toronto Blue Jays for the finale of their three-game set in Canada on Thursday.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Over’ 8½ (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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