Bet Underdog Yankees on the Run Line to Top Felix & the Mariners

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, July 19, 2015 12:14 PM GMT

The Mariners haven't won two games in a row in over a month, and our MLB Handicapper thinks this trend could continue as he makes his Sunday MLB Pick!

It’s breakfast and baseball for us on the West Coast as the New York Yankees host the Seattle Mariners at 10 AM PST in the rubber match of their three game series. Robinson Cano single handedly provided the offense for the Mariners in the second game of this series, knocking in Kyle Seager twice with a pair of two-run home runs against his former team. Seager himself homered twice in the first game of this series, a 4-3 loss. That’s basically been the offense of the M’s this weekend, two Seager home runs and two Cano home runs. This will have to change if they are to win more than one game in a row against these Yankees.

Helping the anemic Seattle offense is the fact that Felix Hernandez is taking the mound on Sunday morning. Felix has excellent numbers in Yankee stadium, to the tune of a 5-1 record and 1.37 ERA over seven starts. This is one of the main reasons that the visiting Mariners opened as -125 money line favorites at 5Dimes, as it’s pretty hard for the public to ignore those types of trends. His season numbers would be even better though without his last start against these Yankees on June 1st. In that game at Safeco Field Felix gave up seven runs over 4.2 IP, capped off by a Mark Teixiera grand slam. Overall though, Felix is 9-6 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .247 BAA against the Yankees in his career. He seems to pick it up when pitching against the boys in pinstripes.

CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees on Sunday and I can’t say he’s been good this year. Actually, he has been just an average pitcher since 2013, if that. Sabathia’s statistics imply a pitcher that has fallen off of a cliff in regards to effectiveness. His BAA of .300 is second worse only to his 2014 BAA of .301. His WHIP at 1.42 is second worse only to his 2014 WHIP of 1.48. Somehow with all of his struggles, he put together a solid effort against the Mariners his last time out, giving up only two runs in 5.2 IP en route to a 5-3 Yankee win. Or was it luck? Sabathia gave up more hits in that game against the M’s than any start in his last ten. That seems par for the course for this Mariner offense, as they have an issue getting hits with runners in scoring position.

The MLB Pick:  As before mentioned, Felix is favored on the road in this game at MLB odds -125 on the money line. The O/U total is also listed at 7.5 runs at multiple MLB odds sites. I’m passing on both of those lines, as the M’s have an untrustworthy offense at this point. For this reason, I like any situation where I can get 1.5 runs in a game against the M’s. This happens to be the case here, as the Yankees can be found on the run line getting 1.5 runs at just -145 at 5Dimes. It also should be noted that the Mariners have not put forth a winning effort two games in a row since June 10th. I’m taking the run and the Yankees with my breakfast this morning, and you should too as your Sunday MLB Pick.

MLB Picks: Bet the Yankees Run Line at 5Dimes