Bet 'Under' With Your MLB Picks as Low Scoring Affair is Expected for Indians vs. Astros

Darin Zank

Wednesday, April 8, 2015 1:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 8, 2015 1:51 PM UTC

Houston is 1-0, after Monday's season-opening victory over Cleveland and a Cy Young winner. The Astros are home dogs again for Wednesday's game with the Tribe.

Indians-Astros Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday morning the best line we could find on Houston and Scott Feldman was the +116 offered at Heritage, while Cleveland and Carlos Carrasco could be gotten at -121 at GT Bets. And most of the MLB odds were listing a total of eight run for tonight's game.


Indians-Astros: Match-Up
Houston took Game 1 of this series Monday 2-0, winning outright as a +100 “underdog” on the betting line. Cleveland starter Corey Kluber, who just won the AL Cy Young award last year, held the Astros hit-less into the sixth inning, but counterpart Dallas Keuchel held the Indians scoreless through seven innings. And the Houston bullpen, the worst in the league last year, tossed two perfect innings to secure the victory.

Astro OF George Springer, who hit 20 homers in 78 games as a rookie last year before going down with a quad injury, knocked in the first run of the game with a sixth-inning base hit.

Houston then manufactured an insurance run in the eighth.

Monday's game played UNDER its total of 7.5 runs as the teams combined for just six hits. That's got to a rarity.

Cleveland took the season series from Houston last year five games to two. Also, each of those seven games played UNDER on the totals, as Tribe-Astros games trended extremely low-scoring.

Big-picture, the Indians are looking to improve upon their 85-77 record of last year, which was four games short of a wild-card berth, although they basically stood pat personnel-wise over the off-season. Cleveland went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 84, getting around 2/1 to win the AL Central.

Houston is hoping to build upon its 72-90 record of last season. The Astros have some nice young talent, and Springer could certainly help on offense, but just making a run at .500 might still be tough. Houston went off with a wins OVER/UNDER of 76, getting upwards of 18/1 to win the AL West.

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On the Mound
Feldman went 8-12 for the Astros last year, with a 3.74 ERA. He gave up more hits, 185, than innings pitched, 180, walked 50 and struck out 107, but also went 18-for-29 on quality starts, including a string of seven in a row to end the season. Houston went 10-19 in Feldman's starts last year, but not all that was his fault, considering the Astros' offensive struggles. Also, the totals went 15-14 in Feldman's start last year.

Feldman started once against Cleveland last season, giving up just one run and four hits in eight innings of a 2-1 Houston loss.

Carrasco is coming off a very nice 2014 campaign in which we went 8-7 with a 2.55 ERA, earning a spot in the Indians rotation. On the season, while going seven-for-14 on quality starts, to go along with 26 appearances in relief, Carrasco gave up just 103 hits in 134 innings, walked 29 and struck out 140. Some of those fine numbers came while throwing against right-handed hitters, for the most part, in relief, but still, they're nice.

Cleveland only went 6-8 in Carrasco's starts last year, but that wasn't his fault, considering the totals skewed toward the UNDERS by a 10-4 margin.

Carrasco started twice against Houston last year, and was super, allowing one run and four hits through 15 innings, walking three while whiffing 20. Cleveland could only manage to split those two games, and both games played UNDER.


Betting Trends
Cleveland went 60-52 against right-handed starters last season.

Houston went 49-66 against right-handers last year.

These teams combined to lean toward the UNDERS last season by a 170-147 margin (54 percent). Not a huge lean, but perhaps indicative of the public perception of these two teams.


Indians-Astros Free Pick
These two teams have played some very low-scoring games over the last season-plus, and tonight's game looks like it should go that way, too. So while we're not sure who's going to win this game, we like the UNDER for our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Houston UNDER eight runs at 5Dimes

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