Bet 'Under' Padres-Giants Opener at Pitcher-Friendly AT&T Park

Jay Pryce

Friday, April 28, 2017 1:10 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 28, 2017 1:10 PM UTC

The Giants and Padres clash for the first of three games at AT&T Park Friday night (10:15 ET). The biggest loser in the NL will likely come out of the series. Each team owns 15 defeats, most in the league.

San Diego Padres (9-15)

Much was made of San Diego’s meager $68.5 million payroll prior to the season, nearly half of which ($31.5 million) the front office doles out to players no longer on the roster. Some superstars like Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw will collect more money this year than San Diego’s entire starting lineup combined. The club is in complete rebuild mode, full of youth, with seven players aged 23 or younger. The inexperience is showing. The Padres’ -1.7 average run differential is the worst in MLB.

Speaking of bad, tonight’s starting pitcher Luis Perdomo was shelled in each his two outings in April. The right-hander earned a no-decision in each, but gifted eight earned runs on 11 hits in 10.1 innings. Perdomo has faced the Giants five times in his young career (three starts), going 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA.

With nearly a full season of MLB service, the Padres have proven a money-maker as road underdogs behind Perdomo. The team is 7-5 SU overall, returning 55 percent profit at +171 average odds. The staff yields 4.4 runs per game in this spot with Perdomo working five innings or more in all but one. He has yet to record a bad start in this situation. This is great news for a beleaguered Padres bullpen owning the fifth-highest ERA (5.47) in the bigs.


San Francisco (8-15)

The Giants are off to their worst start in franchise history. A matchup against a division rival may not be the best path to turn the corner. San Diego swept skipper Bruce Bochy’s squad 3-0 the last time it visited San Francisco in September 2016. The Giants were limited to five runs in three games. Prior to the series, San Francisco won 11 meetings in a row at home.

If there is one starter in the majors competing with Perdomo for worst in April, it's Jeff Samardzija. The veteran right-hander gets the call tonight. He is 0-4 with a 7.40 ERA this month. Walks and home runs allowed are high with nine freebies and five long balls gifted.

Here’s a dose of good news for Giants fans: Samardzija owns more wins vs. the Padres than any other MLB team. He is 7-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts). San Diego’s current roster is 19-for-67 as a group (.284) with just five extra-base hits (1 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR).

Now, back to the bad news; the Giants are just 6-8 as home chalk behind Samardzija, going off -169 odds on average. The team has drained nearly 30 percent investment from backers. Half (3) of the wins occurred in four contests as -200 favorites or greater.


Final Analysis

The market value is on the Padres' money line in this coin-flip encounter, but Perdomo doesn’t instill an ounce of confidence. Tonight’s game features two of the worst starters in April opposing two of the worst run-producing lineups. The Padres score 3.4 runs per game (27th in MLB), while the Giants cross the plate 3.4 times per tilt (29). In a pitcher-friendly ballpark, give the edge to the arms. The safer bet may be in the 'under,' especially if you can pick it up at 8 runs. Some books are dangling the number as of publication. These lineups may struggle to produce six runs total, so eat the half run if you must.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 7.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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