Bet this Small Market Team With Value Price Before Public Catches On

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 18, 2015 1:58 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 18, 2015 1:58 PM UTC

The Momentum  mismatch of the day is on a series dominator with solid pitching mismatch between the Milwaukee Brewers & Kansas City Royals. Find out which team holds our MLB pick.

Milwaukee Brewers (Nelson) vs. Kansas City Royals (Guthrie)  8:10 Est.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Kansas City Royals conclude their 4 game inter-league set on Thursday night at 8:10 Est. With a 10-2 win last night on this field, KC has now outscored Milwaukee 25-9 this week. Those victories have extended the Royals series dominance to 7-0 with 6 consecutive victories at this site, and making them the favorites on the MLB odds board. I confidently predict the 4 game sweep based on teams fundamentals and this pitching match up.  

Milwaukee deserves to have the second worst record in MLB. They are ranked number 28 in both pitching and batting in the OPS rankings. It was just one year ago that the Brewers were playing .600 ball and headed to the playoffs. But a second half meltdown resulted in only 82 wins. The Brewers carried that negative momentum into an 18-36 start to this season.  A 6-2 run gave falls hope. Now they have lost 5 straight being outscored 36-11 with an 8+ ERA Tonight’s starter, Nelson, is clearly not the answer. The Brewers have won just 4 of 13 Nelson starts.  In his previous outing he lasted just 5+ innings allowing 7 runs and 10 hits to Washington.  

The Royals entered 2015 with great confidence following their World Series appearance last year. KC broke from the gate 28-14 before going on a 6-11 slide. The visiting Brewers have allowed their offense to get healthy with 25 runs in 3 games. This is a team that has multiple all-stars, plays outstanding defense and has a solid bullpen. Tonight’s starter, Guthrie, has a bloated 5.79 ERA because of a May 25th start agains NYY in which he allowed 9 runs in just 1 inning. In 3 starts since Guthrie has allowed just 6 runs in 17 IP. His best numbers are at home and at night. 

This is a great example of a value price on a small market team who has yet to capture the favor of  the betting public. Imagin what this price would be if the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers featured the record that Kansas City has amassed in the last two seasons. At this bargain price we are not about to jump off the KC bandwagon. Let’s ride them to the bank for a 4th consecutive night as they sweep the series with our MLB picks

MLB Picks: Take Kansas City Royals -144 at Pinnacle

Browse the futures odds trading for the MLB World Series

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