Bet Run Line in Tuesday's Yankees vs. Rangers

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, July 29, 2014 3:32 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 29, 2014 3:32 PM UTC

Following a dominant 5-0 Pittsburgh win over the Giants last night, as our dog of the day, we switch gears with our MLB picks and offer up a run line special.  Every day of the year, I give you the treasure map.  All you have to do is follow it! 

NY Yankees (McCarthy) (-1 ½ R, -105) at Texas Rangers (N. Martinez) 8:05 ET FOX1

10* NY Yankees (-1 ½ R, +105)

Trailing Baltimore by 4 ½ games ensures full focus from the Yankees as they continue their visit to Arlington, Texas.  The opening game of this set resulted in a 4-2 Texas win, when Darvish handcuffed the NYY bats.  That increased the losing streak for the Bronx Bombers to 3 games, following their 7-1 run.  That brief losing streak by the New Yorkers pales in comparison to the decline of this Texas Ranger team, who is unaccustomed to the embarrassment of sporting the worst record in MLB.  But thanks to recent runs of 12-38, 7-29, and 4-15, the Rangers sit at 42-64, the only team in MLB with a sub .400 mark.  This includes a 20-32 home record, where they have gone 2-11 of late. 

The pitching matchup is clearly in our favor.  N. Martinez has a record of 1-6 for the season with a 5.49 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.  Those numbers are even worse from this mound, where in 20 2/3 IP, Martinez has a 7.40 ERA and 2.23 WHIP.  Eight starts for Martinez have resulted in a 0-5 record with a 6.98 ERA.  This includes his recent work in which Martinez has allowed 30 runs on 43 hits, in his most recent 33 IP.  In short, this guy is a “dead play against.”  Much the opposite is true for McCarthy whose sterling 110/23 KBB implied a far better fate than what he was getting in Arizona due to a lack of run support.  Results have clearly turned around for McCarthy in the month of July.  In his most recent 5 starts, McCarthy is 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA.  That log includes his 3 starts since being traded to the Yankees.  The New Yorkers have won all three of those outings, in which McCarthy has worked 18 2/3 IP, allowing just 6 runs with a 17/3 KBB. 

With the Yankees in the role of hunter and the Rangers clearly having tossed the towel, run line players will have confidence when making this play.  For 23 of 29 (79%) of NYY road wins have come by 2 or more runs, while 28 of 32 (88%) of Texas’ home losses have come by 2 or more runs.  Back the Yankees with your MLB picks, grabbing them on the run line at this value price.

Click here for a free pick on the Yankees vs. Rangers Total.

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