Before betting on tonight's Orioles/Royals keep in mind that the home team has won 7 straight. After reading this MLB pick & odds analysis, you'll know why “it aint no fun when the rabbit’s got the gun!”
Baltimore and KC return to Kaufmann Stadium for Game 3 of this ALCS. There is little question that the Royals are the darlings of this year’s playoffs. The larger venue would seemingly favor the small ball Royals, who led MLB in stolen bases. Not so much for Baltimore whose team was the homerun leaders in MLB. That advantage should be somewhat negated by the size of this park.
Each of these teams is among the second-half leaders in the MLB season. On June 30th, the Orioles were 42-39. Since that time, they have gone 57-29, playing at a .663 clip. The story has been equally impressive for the Royals, who on July 22nd were languishing below .500 at 48-50. Their amazing improvement since that time has seen them go 47-23, a .671 winning percentage. Most impressive, however, has been the playoff surge. The Royals have won 7 consecutive games in these playoffs. That includes a 3-0 sweep of the LAA by a count of 15-6, before winning the 2 games in Baltimore by scores of 8-6 and 6-4. Along the way, they have won 4 games in extra innings, as well as taking Saturday night’s 6-4 victory in the 9th inning. Baltimore entered with similar momentum after sweeping Detroit 3-0. But, that has all faded. As they enter KC tonight, they will do so knowing that in the last 29 years, since the introduction of this playoff format, no team has won a league championship series after losing the first two games at home. Curiously enough, it has been that same timeframe of 29 years since the Royals have won the World Series.
On the mound tonight will be a pair of middle of the rotation starters. For Baltimore, Chen benefited from great run support in going 16-6 for the season with a 3.54 ERA. His recent work has been less than stellar. In his 4 most recent starts, Baltimore is 2-2. In 21 1/3 IP of work in those outings, Chen has allowed 14 runs and 27hits. That includes his work in Game 2 of the Detroit series, a 7-6 Baltimore victory, in which he lasted just 3 2/3 IP, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits. Though he has not pitched since September 26th, Guthrie has pitched simulated games and enters in outstanding form. The Royals have won the last 3 starts by Guthrie, in which he has worked 20 1/3 IP, allowing just 3 runs on 12 hits. A strong history against Baltimore seals the deal. Four starts have seen Guthrie work 27 IP with a 2.67 ERA.
We are confident in this MLB pick tonight. The combination of the advantageous site, the momentum of the Royals’ 8 game winning streak, along with better current form and history for Guthrie adds up to this Monday night winner!
Free MLB Pick: Royals at +106 at BetOnline