Bet Reds Over Cardinals in Tonight's Game 3

Darin Zank

Wednesday, August 20, 2014 1:57 PM GMT

St. Louis won yet another close contest Tuesday night, taking Game 2 of this series 5-4 in walk-off fashion as a large favorite on the MLB betting odds. The Cardinals now shoot for the series sweep Wednesday night (7:15 pm ET).

Wednesday's Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday AM the best line we could find on St. Louis with Lance Lynn was the -109 offered at Pinnacle, while Cincy and Johnny Cueto could be gotten at +101 at Heritage. And most shops were listing the total on this game at 6.5 runs.

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Tuesday Re-Hash
Cincinnati led 4-1 into the bottom of the sixth, but St. Louis forged a tie, then won it in the bottom of the ninth when reliever JJ Hoover plunked John Jay with the bases loaded.

St. Louis won as a -165 post-time favorite, and the game played 'over' its total of 7.5 runs.

The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games, four of those by one run.

We took Cincy for our free MLB pick for Tuesday because we thought that's where the value resided on that betting line. The Reds had a lead into to the bottom of the eighth, but couldn't hold on.

St. Louis has now taken eight of 11 games from Cincinnati this season.
 

Wednesday's Starters
Lynn (13-8, 2.91) is 16/25 on quality starts this season, and seven for his last eight. Most recently he limited the Padres to one run through six innings, and over his last eight outings he's allowed 11 ER through 50 innings.

For the season the former Ole Miss Reb has allowed 141 hits through 152 innings, walked 55 and struck out 139. St. Louis is 16-9 in Lynn's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 16-8 margin.

Lynn has started twice already this season against the Reds, allowing eight runs and 16 hits through 11 innings; the Cards won both those games, and both games played 'over.'

Cueto (15-6, 2.06) is a sparkling 22/26 on quality starts this year, and five for his last five. Last time out he held the Rockies to two runs through eight innings, and over his last five starts he's given up just seven runs through 39 innings.

On the season the NL Cy Young candidate has allowed just 122 hits through 188 innings, walked 49 and whiffed 187. Cincy is 17-9 in Cueto's starts, with the totals leaning 'under' 15-10.

Cueto has started once earlier this season against the Cardinals, holding them to one run and three hits through seven innings of a 1-0 Reds loss back on Opening Day.
 

MLB Pick for Wednesday
We love Johnny, and the Cardinals' luck has got to run out sometime. So we'll go with Cincinnati for our free MLB pick on Wednesday's series finale.