Bet Reds -150 over Cubs for MLB Picks

Jeff Grant

Monday, April 28, 2014 12:20 PM GMT

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija hasn’t received much run support recently, which provides the Cincinnati Reds an opportunity to start off the series with a win Monday night. Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this National League Central series.

Back In The Win Column
Chicago snapped a four-game losing streak by picking up a 4-0 road victory over the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday, as it prepares to play in the 11th day of a stretch in which the team plays 30 contests in 31 days through May 18.

Entering this affair, the Cubs are hitting .209 on the road—42 points lower than their .251 home batting average.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 17-37 as road underdogs of +125 to +150, with the UNDER going 27-23 in that situation.

[gameodds]3/262938/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Heading Back Home
Cincinnati finished its 10-game road trip with a 5-5 record, as it dropped a 1-0 extra-innings decision to the Atlanta Braves Sunday.  It’s important to point out that the club has lost nine of its 12 one-run affairs this season.

The Reds have a great opportunity of turning things around in this spot, as they’ve gone 25-7 against the Cubs dating to August 2012—taking two of three in this season’s first series at Wrigley Field.

MLB handicappers will find that the squad is 35-24 as home favorites of -125 to -150 since the start of the 2012 campaign.

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Samardzija
Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija (0-2, 1.53 ERA) has received just 2.60 runs of support during an 11-start winless streak that stretches back to last season, while the team has dropped four of his five efforts in 2014.

The right-hander was 5-8 with a 3.91 ERA in 16 road outings a season ago, including an 0-2 mark and 5.40 ERA in two efforts at this ballpark.

Samardzija has compiled a 1-4 record and 4.52 ERA in 22 career games (eight starts) versus the Reds.

 

Simon
Reds starting pitcher Alfredo Simon (3-1, 1.30 ERA) has won led the club to back-to-back victories, including a 5-2 road win over the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out, as he surrendered two runs and four hits over 6.2 frames.

The right-hander has limited opponents to a .172 batting average, while allowing two home runs over 27.2 innings.

In 11 lifetime appearances (one start) versus the Cubs, Simon has put together a 2-0 record and 2.16 ERA.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Reds as one of their MLB picks, as they’ve won six of their last seven home games after a road trip of seven-plus days.

MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds -150