Bet Padres Over Giants for Saturday's MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, September 20, 2014 11:55 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 20, 2014 11:55 AM UTC

We’re getting down to the time of the season, when playoff contenders are facing opponents that have been long since been eliminated from postseason contention. Our MLB handicapping expert breaks down tonight’s Giants/Padres game, and shares his money line MLB free pick in this affair.

NL West Tilt at Petco Park in San Diego
The Padres will host the Giants on Saturday at Petco Park in San Diego with the first pitch slated for 8:40 PM ET. According to MLB odds, the Padres are a -108 money line home favorite, and the posted total is 6.0. Heading into this series on Friday night these teams have split their 12-meetings in 2014. They’ve also seen just 4 of those 14-games go over the total.


Giants on the Brink
Going into the weekend, the Giants held a 2.0 game lead over the Pirates for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, and distanced themselves by 5.5 games over the Milwaukee Brewers who remain their only threat in their quest to make the playoffs. It would be safe to say at this juncture, that barring a monumental collapse, the Giants look to be a lock to make the playoffs. San Francisco has been a very good road team this season going 42-33 (.560). They will be facing a right-handed starting pitcher tonight for the Padres, and the Giants have gone a terrific 56-39 (.589) in that role during the 2014 campaign.


Padres Stellar at Home
It may come to some people’s surprise that with 9-days left in the MLB regular season, the San Diego Padres have gone 43-32 (.573) at home in 2014. As a matter of fact, if the season were to end today, The Padres would have a better home record than 4 of the 10-teams that qualified for the postseason. Unfortunately, they’ve been awful on the road with a dismal 28-49 (.363) record. They’re also the worst hitting team in baseball with a team batting average of .227. The good news is, heading into the weekend they were hitting .281 as a team over their last 7-games, and had an outstanding .354 OBP during that period. The Padres have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7, and 8 of the last 10-games.


The Starting Pitchers
The Giants starter for tonight will be Yusemiro Petit. The right-hander has struggled mightily in his 4 road starts in 2014 posting a abysmal 9.31 ERA in those outings. Petit has worked mostly in relief this season. However, since August 28th he’s made 4-starts, posting a 3.84 ERA, and going 3-1 against the money.

The Padres will send Andrew Cashner to the mound tonight. Cashner has gone 3-1 against the money in his last 4-starts with a brilliant 1.55 ERA. Cashner has certainly benefitted from performing in a pitcher friendly home ballpark. He’s gone 7-3 against the money at Petco Park with a superb 1.34 ERA.


Final Analysis
Considering Petit’s struggles in his road starts, Cashner’s brilliance at home, and the Padres very good home record, there’s an abundance of value to be had with the home side tonight regardless in the disparity between these teams overall records. Bet San Diego over San Francisco for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Padres -108 over the Giants at 5Dimes

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