Bet on Orioles Upsetting MLB Odds vs. Mets: Plus Money Line

Charles Stark

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 1:08 PM GMT

The MLB odds can look really crazy sometimes, especially early in the season.  I'm exploiting some crazy odds by betting on Bud Norris of the Baltimore Orioles and his ERA of 12.18 against Colon & the Mets.

How Bad is Norris?
Not nearly as bad as his pitching numbers have been so far this season as far as that question goes.  He has had it kind of rough having to face three of the top hitting teams in the AL so far this season in Toronto twice, who lead the league in runs scored per game, the Yankees, and Red Sox… yikes that is tough.  Things are starting to look up for him though, in his last outing against the Sox he allowed only 3 runs in 6 and 2/3 innings.  His career ERA is not great with a 4.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.40. 

 

Colon and the Line
MLB Odds makers have come out making the Orioles around a +110 underdog and I think there is a lot of value taking them on the plus money line.  Colon has been decent on the year with a 4-1 record and 3.31 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00, but opposite of Norris he has faced pretty pedestrian hitting teams in the Braves twice, Marlins twice, and Nationals.  Career wise he comes in with an ERA of almost 4.00.

 

Offense or Lack Thereof
Norris should have some success today though against a Mets offense that has only scored 28 runs in their last 10 games.  Out of 30 major league teams the Mets are ranked lower than 20th in all major offensive categories.   On the other side the Orioles have been fine offensively scoring 58 runs in their last 10 games (big game against the Sox scoring 18 runs), and rank in the top five in all major offensive categories.

I like the value on Baltimore in this spot, Norris is not as bad as his number indicates and the Orioles are the much better hitting team.  To me it is great value on a solid team which makes them my MLB Picks of the day.

MLB Picks: Orioles +112 at BookMaker