Bet Giants vs. Padres to Go 'Over' Total for Tonight's MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 21, 2014 11:59 AM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 21, 2014 11:59 AM GMT

Our MLB betting odds expert Ross Benjamin analyzes this afternoon’s NL West confrontation between the Giants/Padres. Read this highly informative sports handicapping article, that culminates with a MLB free pick on the total.

Final Battle of the Season between NL West Rivals
The Padres will host the Giants on Sunday at Petco Park in San Diego with the first pitch slated for 4:10 PM ET. According to MLB odds, the Giants are a -115 money line road favorite, and the posted total is 7.0. The Padres have gone 7-6 versus the Giants in 2014. These teams have seen 8 of their 12 meetings this season go under the total.

 

The Starting Pitchers
The Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong enters tonight in shaky form during his past 3-starts, with a lofty 6.23 ERA, and 1.67 WHIP. He’s really had a tough time on the road recently, going 0-4 against the money, with a large 7.65 ERA, and allowed 7 home runs in just 20.0 innings during those outings.

The Padres will go with right-hander Ian Kennedy on the mound this afternoon. Similar to Ryan Vogelsong, Kennedy has been in rocky form during his past 3-starts, with an unimpressive 5.20 ERA, and 1.56 WHIP.

 

Giants in a Comfort Zone
San Francisco entered their game on Saturday 3.0 games behind the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West, and has 9-games left to play. It certainly wouldn’t be an impossible task to overcome, but the more realistic goal is securing the top wild card spot in the National League, and being assured of playing that 1-game playoff at home. Going into Saturday’s game, they held a 1.0 game lead over the Pirates in that regard. Despite going 2-4 over their last 6-games, they’re still 20-11 in their last 31 overall. The Giants have been solid on the road, going 42-34 in that role during the 2014 campaign. 

 

Padres Tough at Petco Park
If you didn’t read my Daily Pitching Report on Saturday, then this is worth repeating. The Padres are 44-32 (.579) at home this season, including 20-6 in their last 26 at Petco Park. If the season were to end today, they would have a better home record than 4 of the 10 teams who qualified for the playoffs. Unfortunately for Padres fans, their team has gone a horrendous 28-49 (.364) on the road this season. The Padres have seen 8 of their last 11-games go over the total, and that’s a rarity from a club that’s had the highest percentage of games stay under the total in 2014.


Final Analysis Considering the recent struggles of both starting pitchers in recent starts, and the low total in this game, I’m leaning toward this one playing on the high side of the total for my MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Giants/Padres over the total of 6.5 at 5Dimes

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