Bet Dodgers on the Run Line -1.5 vs. Cardinals

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 5:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 5:33 PM UTC

Before sharing our MLB pick for tonight's post-season game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals, we want to mention that we play this game on the run line with confidence.

LA Dodgers (-1 ½ R, -110)
We profited from the resiliency of St. Louis last night in a 3-1 home field victory which extended the series lead to 2-1, making this an elimination game for the Dodgers.  That St. Louis victory ran the record of the Cards to 90-49/L L2Y, while dropping the Dodgers to 0-4 on this field, the last 2 years in playoff games.  Those 4 defeats have seen the Dodgers tally just 3 runs in 40 innings.  Along with the fact that Kershaw is 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA in his previous 5 starts from this mound, there is a bit of trepidation in this selection. 

Kershaw pitched Game 1 of this series.  Leading 6-1 in the 6th inning, Kershaw experienced an uncharacteristic meltdown, allowing the Cards to rally for a 10-9 victory.  Clearly, that is uncharacteristic of Kershaw who owns a slew of Cy Young Trophies and ERA titles.  Know that prior to the meltdown in Game 1, in which Kershaw allowed 8 runs in 6 2/3 IP, that the LA Dodgers had won 7 consecutive Kershaw starts.  Those outings span 53 IP in which Kershaw allowed only 9 runs and 36 hits.  Those outings were certainly more characteristic of his work for the YTD in which he posted a 21-4 record with a 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 239/31 KBB.  His YTD work on the road was every bit as solid.  In 13 road starts, Kershaw worked 87 1/3 IP with a 1.85 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.  No fear backing Kershaw on short rest!  In 3 such outings, on 3 days of rest, Kershaw is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA. 

St. Louis sends Miller to the mound to make his first post-season start.  Miller has not pitched since September 23rd.  The YTD numbers for Miller are far inferior to those of Kershaw.  These include a record of 10-9 with a 3.74 ERA and a disturbing 127/73 KBB.    In his 2 most recent starts, Miller lasted just 10 1/3 IP, allowing 5 runs.   His history against the LA Dodgers leaves much to be desired.  In 12 1/3 IP, Miller has a 6.57 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP and a .353 BAA. 

We play this game on the run line with confidence, backed by the following numbers.  39 of 49 LA Dodger road wins (80%) have come by 2 or more runs, while 21 of 30 St. Louis home losses (70%) have come by 2 or more runs.  

Free MLB Pick: Play the LA Dodgers on the run line at 5Dimes behind Kershaw to erase his demons and lead the Dodgers to a resounding, multi-run victory in this elimination game.

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