The Dodgers' magic number to clinch the NL West sits at three, and convieniently they open a three-game weekend series in Colorado Friday night. Who should be our MLB pick on Game 1?
Dodgers vs.Rockies Friday Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with Mike Bolsinger was the -141 at Heritage, while Colorado with fellow righty David Hale was getting +136 at GT Bets. Also, most of today's market was listing a total on tonight's game of 11.5 runs, and we're thinking that might climb to 12 by the time first-pitch comes around.
Finally, BetOnline was chalking the Dodgers at -210 to win this series, with the Rockies getting +180 as home dogs.
LA just split four games at home with Arizona, winning the series finale Thursday 6-3. But just before taking the last two games of that series the Dodgers had lost four in a row.
Still, at 87-65 Los Angeles leads the NL West by eight games over second-place San Francisco, with 10 games to go. The Dodgers also lead the Mets by a game and a half in the battle for home-field advantage in an upcoming National League divisional-round playoff series.
Colorado, meanwhile, just got swept four games at home by Pittsburgh this week, falling Thursday 5-4. So the Rockies have lost five in a row overall, and at 63-90 they've already packed their bags on this season.
The Dodgers lead this season series 11 games to five, with the OVERS going 10-6.
Hale (4-5, 6.32) will be making his first start in a month, after being demoted to the bullpen. On the season Hale is just two-for-10 on quality starts, and was 0 for his last seven before the demotion. In his last two starts he gave up 10 earned runs through 11 innings, and over four relief appearances since then he's allowed seven runs through eight innings. On the season Hale has allowed 84 hits, including 14 homers, in just 68 innings, walked 16 and struck out 54.
Colorado is just 2-8 in Hale's starts, with the OVERS going 6-3.
In his only career start against Los Angeles, back in June, Hale gave up four runs in six innings of a 9-8 Rockies defeat.
Bolsinger (6-4, 3.26) is only six-for-19 on quality starts, and 0-for-three since returning from a stint in the Minors. Last Sunday he gave up four runs – three earned – though 4 1/3 innings against Pittsburgh, and over his last three starts he's allowed nine ER through 13 innings. On the season Bolsinger has allowed 93 hits through 102 innings, walked 40, which a few too many, and struck out 89.
The Dodgers are 11-8 in Bolsinger's starts, with the OVERS going 10-9.
In two starts this season against Colorado Bolsinger has allowed four runs through 11 innings; LA split those two games.
Friday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks eighth in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with both a .324 team on-base percentage and a .416 team slugging percentage.
Colorado ranks 14th against righties with a .319 team OBP but first with a .455 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 43-33 in games played at Coors Field this season, which are averaging 11.4 runs per, easily the most among all ML ballparks.
Dodgers-Rockies Free Picks
Bolsinger doesn't inspire a ton of betting confidence, but Hale, even less. And LA wants to secure the division title before it has to go to San Francisco for a four-game series next week. So we like the Dodgers, and in taking a gamble we'll add a run-line play on Los Angeles to today's list of free MLB picks. Also, considering these two starters and these two bullpens, we like the OVER, even at that huge number.
MLB Picks: Dodgers -1.5 (+111) & OVER 11.5 runs (+111) at Pinnacle