Bet Cubs vs. Mets 'Over' 7 Runs With Hendricks & Niese Pitching

David Lawrence

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 12:54 PM GMT

The Mets might be the better team according to the records but you might want to pause before laying it down with them on the betting lines. Let’s take a closer look at Mets-Cubs matchup on Tonight.

Momentum
The New York Mets are on a bit of a roll right now as they’ve won four straight games. That’s an encouraging turnaround from where they were before that as they had seven straight and fallen below .500 for the first time since they were 2-3. The main issue for them right now is their offense as they just aren’t generating much of a spark. They are scoring just 2.0 runs per game over their last 11 contests, which ranks them among the fewest in the Majors in that span. The good news is that they aren’t giving up many runs either as they’ve allowed just four runs during their four-game winning streak and they’ve also won six straight at home. On the season, they are 29-11 at home, which gives them the league’s second-best home record.

As for the Cubs, they enter Tuesday on a wild funk. They’ve lost five straight games and are also having all sorts of issues at the plate. They are averaging just 2.5 runs per game over their last 11 with just seven runs in total over their last six contests. That’s awful. They’ll need to find a way to kick it up on a notch or they’ll lose on Tuesday.

 

Pitching Matchup
The Mets will put Niese on the mound and MLB betting handicappers know he hasn’t been a profitable pitcher this season. The Mets have dropped seven of his last eight outings. They’ve scored a total of just 17 runs in his last seven starts (2.4 runs per game). He’s actually pitched pretty well this month, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.38 WHIP but the Mets just aren’t scoring enough for him. Some might say his numbers are a bit lucky as opponents are batting .306 against him at home, so his 4.25 home ERA seems a bit low for what it could be with that type of average.

The Cubs will be hoping to take advantage as maybe Niese helps their bats. However, their starter, Kyle Hendricks, hasn’t exactly been sharp himself, so the Mets could be in for a good matchup too. Hendricks hasn’t lasted longer than 5.0 innings pitched in each of his last four outings. He’s pitched better at home this season where opponents bat .228 against him and his WHIP is 1.05 compared to on the road where opponents bat .291 and his WHIP is 1.36. The Cubs are 3-5 in his road starts this season.

 

What’s The Pick?
We’re faced with a low total here of seven because both offenses are laboring but I think we might see an over here. Hendricks numbers indicate he’s much weaker on the road while the Cubs bat fairly well against lefties. Their .268 batting average versus left-handed pitching is the seventh-best number in the Majors. On top of that, they are facing Niese, who is 0-5 with a 5.87 ERA in his last eight outings. Take the over.

MLB Pick: Over at GT Bets