Bet the Angels on the Run Line in Series Opener vs. Orioles

Darin Zank

Tuesday, July 29, 2014 12:55 PM GMT

It should be a playoff-like atmosphere when the AL East-leading O's and the wild-card leading Halos open a three-game series at Camden Yards Tuesday night (7:05 pm ET). We'll follow this series through, providing updated pitching match-ups and free MLB picks for each game.

Angels vs. Orioles Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning Baltimore and Chris Tillman could be gotten at +108 for this series opener at 5Dimes, while the Angels and Jered Weaver were lined at -113 at Pinnacle. And most books were listing the total on Tuesday's game at 8.5 runs.

Also, Bovada was listing both teams at -115 to win this series.

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Series Set-Up
Baltimore just took three of four games in Seattle over the weekend, winning Sunday 3-2. The Orioles have won six of their last seven series, and 16 of their last 23 games.

At 58-46 the O's lead the AL East by 2.5 games over Toronto.

LA, meanwhile, just took three of four games at home against Detroit over the weekend, winning Sunday 2-1. The Angels have won six of their last seven series, and 25 of their last 33 games. At 63-41 the Halos sit in second place in the AL West, a game and a half behind first-place Oakland. LA also leads the AL wild-card race by a comfortable 7.5 games.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; last week the Orioles went out to the Big A and won two of three games. All three of those games stayed 'under' the totals, as the teams combined to score just 17 runs in the series.

 

Tuesday's Twirlers
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game from last Wednesday, a 3-2 Angels victory out in Anaheim.

Tillman (7-5, 3.92), by our tough accounting, is 11/22 on quality starts this season, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday against these same Angels he gave up one run in six innings, and over his last four starts he's allowed eight runs through 26 1/3 innings.

For the season Tillman has allowed 126 hits in 131 innings, but his K/BB ratio is really mediocre, at 83/51. Nonetheless Baltimore is 13-9 in Tillman's starts.

Since the start of last season Tillman has faced the Angles twice, holding them to one run and eight hits through 14 innings; both those games stayed 'under'.

Weaver (11-6, 3.36) is 12/22 on quality starts, and three for his last three. Last time out, against these same Orioles last Wednesday, Weaver allowed two runs through eight innings, and over his last three starts he's given up just six runs through 21 innings.

On the season Weaver has allowed 118 hits in 139 innings, walked 38 and struck out 110. The Angels are 14-8 in Weaver's starts this year, and 7-0 over his last seven outings.

Since the beginning of last season Weaver has started twice against the Orioles, allowing six runs and 12 hits through 13 2/3 innings; both those games played 'under.'

In the bullpen match-up for this series Baltimore ranks 11th in ERA at 3.42, with 33 saves in 48 chances, while LA ranks 18th in ERA at 3.66, with 29 saves in 42 chances. But that Angels pen got a boost with the recent addition of closer Huston Street, who's 3/3 on save opportunities for his new team.  

 

With the Sticks
LA ranks fourth in team OPS at .749 and second in scoring at 4.9 runs per game.

Baltimore ranks sixth in OPS at .727, second in homers with 125, dead last in stolen bases with 30 and ninth in scoring at 4.2 RPG.

Compare Our Handicappers Picks for the Angels vs. Orioles Series Opener!

Angels-Orioles Betting Trends
LA has played eight 'unders' in its last 10 games, in part because the bats have gone a little cold, while the arms have been very tough.

Baltimore has played seven 'unders' in a row, for basically the same reasons.

The totals have skewed toward the 'unders' by a heavy 32-15 margin in games played at Camden Yards this year.

 

Free Pick for Tuesday
We give Weaver the edge in the pitching match-up, so we're leaning toward LA. And since we like to take chances we'll go with the Angels on the run line, getting +145 at 5Dimes, for our free pick on Tuesday's series opener.