Best & Worst Run Line ROI at the All-Star Break: MLB Betting

Jay Pryce

Sunday, July 9, 2017 4:46 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 9, 2017 4:46 PM UTC

Which are the most and least profitable MLB teams against the run line entering the All-Star break? The answers may surprise you.

Cashin’ In

Entering the pre-All-Star break weekend, the major league’s most profitable team on the run line are the Houston Astros—and it is not even close. The current World Series favorites at +425 on the MLB betting lines (5Dimes) have treated backers to a 29 percent ROI, going 52-34 RL overall. All but nine covers have come as chalk, and the heavier the number the better. Houston is 13-1 RL when favorites greater than -175 this season, outscoring opponents by 4.0 runs per game.

The NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers are the second-most profitable team against the number at 17 percent entering Saturday. L.A. is 51-37 RL at +102.6 betting odds on average. The team owns the best home record in baseball at 37-11 SU; it has bested the run line in all but seven games at Dodgers Stadium.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are the third and fourth most profitable run-line teams. Arizona, +13000 on April 1 to win the World Series, caught the books by surprise, going 11-6 SU as an underdog through the first month of the season. Since it is 12-6 SU as pups. The surprise wins have helped the D-Backs to a 49-38 RL mark versus the number, returning nearly 11 percent to investors.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is cashing in by staying competitive. The Brew Crew have gone off underdogs 60 times, fifth most in the bigs behind the White Sox (76), Padres (68), Phillies (67), and Reds (64). They have won or kept it within a run in more than half (37). Overall, Milwaukee is 52-37 RL against the run line, returning a little more than 9 percent profit.

The Yankees (9.0 percent), Rangers (7.3 percent), Rockies (3.2 percent), and Red Sox (1.7 percent) are the only other teams to return a positive ROI in this span.

Burnin’ Bills

The Chicago Cubs are the least profitable team on the run line for our 2017 MLB picks nearing the break. Preseason favorites to repeat as World Series champions, manager Joe Maddon’s men are 43-43 SU as of Saturday, way south of a 96.5 wins total books dangled prior to April 1. Bettors have lost 23 percent on the handicap, the team going 33-53 RL overall. Chicago’s average run-line odds are +105; only the Astros (+115.7) sport a higher figure. The Cubs have been particularly lackluster away from Wrigley Field with a 19-25 SU record.

The San Francisco Giants are not far behind the Cubs in burning bills for run-line bettors. The NL West cellar dwellers are 38-50 RL at -105.5 average odds, equating to nearly a 17 percent loss. San Fran sustained a horrid month-long run from May 23 to June 25, going 7-25 SU and 10-22 RL overall. The team’s -1.09 average run differential is third fewest in the majors behind the Padres (-1.43) and Phillies (-1.14).

Strong pitching keeps games competitive. Just ask any Baltimore Orioles fan. The team tied a 93-year MLB record earlier this season by ceding 5+ runs in 20 straight games. In 46 defeats entering Saturday, the O’s have lost by an average of 4.26 runs per game. Whoa. Needless to say, the team’s run-line record is poor. Baltimore is the third least profitable team, losing 13 percent with a 37-49 RL record at -108 average odds.

Run-line betting is risky for sure. In addition to the above-mentioned trip, seven other franchises have lost double-digit profits to date: the Seattle Mariners (-12.9 percent), St. Louis Cardinals (-12.6 percent), Anaheim Angels (-12.1 percent), Toronto Blue Jays (-11.5 percent), New York Mets (-10.6), Cleveland Indians (-10.3 percent), and Oakland Athletics (-10.2 percent).

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