Best Value MLB Picks of the Day for Thursday, May 25th

Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, May 25, 2017 12:48 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 25, 2017 12:48 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper, Mark Lathrop, continues to run well over 60% ATS in the last few weeks. Read on as he spots two starters which should be outmatched on Thursday's MLB betting card.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/j0QS8_g-hQs", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

 

Happy Jered Weaver Da… oh, wait. As the Padres have put our favorite fade-worthy pitcher on the DL we turn to his replacement to find wagering value on Thursday as the Padres finish up their series at the Mets.

Dinelson Lamet gets his first major league starts on Thursday evening after being called up from AAA. He’s been pretty good in the minors, putting together a 3.40 FIP over 39 innings pitched. However, Lamet has issues with control that has him running a very poor 4.62 BB/9 rate. That’s not going to fly against even a tame New York Mets lineup, as they will just wait for a hitter’s count and turn around a fastball.

Lamet is scheduled to pitch against Jacob deGrom, who dealt with a blister the last time out while still putting up seven innings of shutout baseball against the Angels. DeGrom has been striking out more batters than ever this year and has tallied a 78/23 K/BB rate over 55.2 innings pitched. He is also very tough at home and over 24.2 innings have accrued a 2.19 ERA and .202 batting average allowed to both sides of the plate. This is a very tough position for Lamet to be successful in and he may have to be nearly perfect to have a chance in this game. I’ll back the hot deGrom in this case and take the Mets -1.5 as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

 Free MLB Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+105)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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   Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

 

Colorado has been on a tear lately, and the surprising NL West team finishes up a very successful road trip in the fourth game of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday afternoon. Our MLB handicapper doesn’t think much will stop their offense from producing here.

The Colorado lineup has broken out and looks to continue mashing on Thursday afternoon against Philadelphia Phillies starter, Vince Velasquez. Velasquez has struggled quite a bit at home too, with a 7.25 ERA, .261 batting average allowed, and .552 slugging percentage over 22.1 innings pitched. His xFIP of 4.13 versus his FIP of 5.16 discounts park factors, such as pitching in Philadelphia’s band box, but that won’t help him today. His reliance on his fastball will also not serve him well against this Colorado lineup, as they are among the top teams against that pitch in the MLB. Velasquez uses the fastball 68.3% of the time, and his hard hit and pull rates show it is getting hit with authority more often than not.

Tyler Anderson starts for the Rockies and he exhibits and even stronger xFIP versus FIP split of 3.65 to 5.10. He’s pitched well in May though, posting a 3.06 ERA over his last starts – including a spiffy 25/5 K/BB rate. He can be trusted here over the Phillies lineup way more than Valesquez over the Rockies, so I will be taking Colorado to keep things rolling on the moneyline.

 

Free MLB Pick: Colorado -119Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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