So, we are now a day away from the start of the 2019 MLB season for all teams not from Oakland or Seattle. Those two teams played their first two games in Japan, so truly tomorrow is the ‘traditional’ home opener here in the States
Before every season, whether it’s the NFL, NBA, or MLB, the fan talk surrounds which teams are contenders or pretenders and how many games each team will win. Of course there are the passionate emotionally driven opinions that are irrational stretches of reality such as recent news of a significant bet being placed on the Orioles to win the World Series.
I am going to attempt to cut through all of the emotion and provide you with a few solid OVER wagers for the 2019 MLB season. As many of you already know I have developed over 1100 sports algorithms and machine learning tools that dig through 10’s of millions of data points and provide projections and ultimately teams to wager on that have a strong probability of winning the game. The focus is on the longer-term and not just one day of success or failure. Grinding out the profits in MLB with a majority of DOG wagers is the foundation to profits. So, in the following best bets, you will notice this DOG and contrarian sentiment.
The first one is to wager on the Cincinnati Reds ‘OVER’ the posted total of 79.5 wins. They have averaged just 69 wins over their last three season and with the offseason moves they have made are now poised to take a large positive step forward in 2019. I strongly belevie they could make a run at winning this Division, so check out the current lines for the Divisional winner and you will see exceptional value to take on that risk with the Reds.
A strongly contrarian play is wagering over 63.5 wins that Miami Marlins will win 64 or more games. The public has pushed this line to -140 vig for those thinking the Marlins will not win more than 63 games and as a result gives us a +120 dog line. So, a winning Dime play on the OVER 63.5 wins total line returns a profit of $1,200.
The National League East, which was nicknamed the NL Least last year due to the poor play of all of the teams except the Atlanta Braves is now suddenly the NL Beasts. Four teams have wins totals over 85 with the Phillies surging to the lead after recently signing free agent Bryce Harper to a 13-year contract with the Phillies. So, the Phillies are lined at 89.5 wins, then Washington lined at 88.5 wins, then Atlanta at 86 wins and the Mets at 85.5 wins. For reasons beyond my understanding, the public is betting the Phillies ‘UNDER’ so much that the ‘OVER’ is now getting +110 vig. The Phillies have all of the pieces to win this Division and only the Braves matchup well against them. So, my machine learning tools project that the Phillies will win 96 games and advance to the playoffs with Atlanta also being an ‘OVER’ play winning 92 games and a Wild Card Berth.In Summary:
- Play ‘OVER’ Philadelphia Phillies 89.5 wins +110
- Play ‘OVER’ Atlanta Braves 86 wins +100
- Play ‘OVER’ Miami Marlins 63.5 wins +120
- Play ‘OVER’ Cincinnati Reds 79 wins -110
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