Best O/U MLB Picks Feature a Pair of Low Scoring Marquee Games

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 25, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

MLB handicapping professional shares his two top totals selections. Don’t make any MLB Picks on either the White Sox/Yankees & Brewers/Cardinals game without first reading this article.

WhiteSox (Rodon) vs. Yankees (Sabathia) 7:05 PM ET
Carlos Rodon has been superb over his last seven starts. During those outings, Rodon posted a stellar 1.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The White Sox have struggled offensively during their previous seven, evidenced by a .209 team batting average, .613 OPS, and an average of only 2.7 runs scored per game. Chicago has also gone 21-12 (63.6%) under the total when facing a southpaw starting pitcher (Sabathia) like they’ll be doing today, and compiled a very poor .611 OPS in those games. They’ve also seen four of their previous five games overall stay under the total.

C.C. Sabathia seems to be coming on at the most opportune time. With the postseason looming, Sabathis has a very good 2.56 ERA during his previous seven starts. Similar to their opponent today, the Yankees have been slumping offensively over their last seven games, hitting only .227 as a team, and possessing an uninspiring .658 OPS during that stretch. The Yankees are 43-26 (62.3%) under the total this season when there’s a number of 8.0 or 8.5. They’ve also gone under the total in eight of their last eleven overall.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and one of my MLB picks today will reflect that prediction.

MLB Pick: White Sox & Yankees Under 8 at TheGreek

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Brewers (Pena) vs. Cardinals (Martinez) 8:15 PM ET
Ariel Pena has held his own since being called up to the majors. He’s posted a more than respectable 3.00 ERA in his three starts. One of those came against St. Louis on 9/15. Pena allowed just 1 earned run on 4 hits while walking 3 in that outing. If there’s a red flag with Pena it pertains to some control issues. He’s walked 10 in only 15.0 innings pitched. However, he’s overcompensated for those walks by striking out 14 and surrendering only 11 hits during that time.

Carlos Martinez has displayed good form in his last three starts by posting a stellar 2.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Martinez has an excellent 0.60 ERA during two starts versus Milwaukee in 2015, and both games went under the total. The Cardinals are 36-17 (67.9%) under the total at home this season when facing a right-handed starting pitcher (Pena).

My wager on this game will be on going under the total. According to current MLB odds at Heritage, they’ll allow me to lay the least amount of juice.

MLB Pick: Brewers & Cardinals Under 7 (-129) at Pinnacle

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