Before Betting Royals vs. Yankees, Note Eovaldi's 4.73 ERA

David Lawrence

Monday, May 25, 2015 12:56 PM UTC

Monday, May. 25, 2015 12:56 PM UTC

The Kansas City Royals are underdogs in the MLB odds tonight as they face the NY Yankees, despite having one of the best records as Memorial Day arrives. 

The Kansas City Royals Can Win Because…
They are the much better team in this matchup. The Royals just won two out of three against the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in the National League. The Royals are putting everything together this season. Their bullpen is still really strong, roughly as strong as it was last season. It’s still at the top of baseball, with Wade Davis remaining every bit as good as he was in 2014, and Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera being right in the same area in terms of excellence. Herrera has a 1.80 ERA… and he’s the worst of the group by far. Holland sits at 0.90, and Davis hasn’t given up a single earned run this season. His ERA is zero. With that kind of bullpen and an offense that’s been better than it was a year ago, the Royals once again have put themselves in a position where they don’t need a spectacular starting pitching performance to win games.

Think of this: The minimum qualification for a quality start is to go at least six innings and not give up more than three runs. That’s a 4.50 ERA. The starter for Kansas City in this game is Jeremy Guthrie, who has a 4.75 ERA. If he can go six innings and give up three runs, that should probably give Kansas City a good chance to win, because New York Yankee starter Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.73 ERA and can get knocked around by Kansas City’s hitters.

It should be pointed out that the Yankees have really begun to tail off after playing well in April. They just got hammered by Texas on Saturday, 15-4, and lost that weekend series at home. New York has slid out of first place in the American League East and has a starting pitching rotation that looks vulnerable. This is also going to put an added strain on the bullpen, which is having to throw way too many innings, as was the case on Saturday in particular. 

Check out Dave's MLB picks for Mariners vs. Rays, too

The New York Yankees Can Win Because…
They could hit Guthrie and score enough to offset any of the disadvantages posed by their starting pitching. When the opposing pitcher has an ERA of 4.75 as Guthrie does, it’s clear that hitters should be able to get some opportunities to knock in runs. The Yankees just need to get a few two-out, run-scoring hits. They also need to pounce on any mistakes Guthrie makes in the strike zone. Yankee Stadium has such a short porch down the lines, so if New York’s power hitters can work counts and make Guthrie throw hitters’ pitches, this game can break in the Yankees’ direction.


Baseball Betting Outlook
Guthrie does not inspire complete confidence but the Royals are a much better team than the Yankees and should be able to get to Eovaldi for several runs. He’s allowing opposing hitters to bat .311 this season including .328 at home. That’s likely to catch up with him even though his win-loss record says he’s 3-1. Take the Royals with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Kansas City +112 at Bovada

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