Beat The Monday Blues With A Pair Of MLB Picks On The Total

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 1, 2016 12:47 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 1, 2016 12:47 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper is nailing his top totals picks lately, so read on and cash your tickets with Monday's best MLB totals picks! You don't want to miss this opportunity to beat your book.

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Under 8.5
The Washington Nationals finish up their West Coast road trip with a series against the Arizona Diamondbacks that starts on Monday night. The Nationals are huge favorites in this game and can be found at -185 at BetOnline. The O/U total is at 8 almost universally across the board; however, Heritage has hung an 8.5 out there that I am very interested in.

Archie Bradley gets the start for the Diamondbacks in this game and he has been very solid over the last two months, posting a 3.67 ERA in June and 3.60 in July. His home and away splits are a little misleading, as he has allowed a lower batting average at home yet has posted a 5.15 ERA at home and a 3.38 ERA on the road. Bradley has given up 3 or less earned runs in seven of his last eight games.

For the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg gets the start and he has been nails all season long, posting a 14-1 win-loss record. On the season he has posted a 2.68 ERA, 155/36 K/BB rate (That’s good), 0.99 WHIP (yep, good), and a .194 batting average allowed. July has been the best month of the season for Strasburg, as he has compiled a 2.08 ERA and allowed a ridiculous .126 batting average to opposing batters. Strasburg has given up 1 or less earned runs in five of the last six games.

Let’s add in the fact that the Nationals have cashed the under in the last 4 straight games and the total on that side seems to have some excellent value. Only the Arizona bullpen could really screw this up now, so take a look at the 1st 5 inning line when it comes out on the MLB Odds, but until then Under 8.5 runs at Heritage is the value pick for this game.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners – Over 8.5
The Seattle Mariners start the month of August and a much-needed homestand with a visit from the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. The early odd out on this game have the home team favored slightly at -115 on the moneyline, while the O/U total can be found at 8.5 with a slight shade to the Over at Heritage.

Starting for the Red Sox is Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been in the starting rotation since late May. This will be his fifth start on the road this year and the early returns on those road starts haven’t been good to him. Over his first 4 starts on the road and 20.1 innings pitched, Rodriguez has put up a 7.08 ERA, 10/7 K/BB rate, and allowed opponents to bat .318 off of him. Going up against the home run happy Mariners won’t be easy, especially as Rodriguez gives up dingers at a 16.4% HR/FB rate.

James Paxton starts for the Mariners in this game, and although he has shown flashes of pure brilliance this year, he has yet to pull it all together. He pitches much better on the road than at home where he sports a 4.82 ERA. Paxton’s issues have been centered on getting right-handers out, as he has allowed righties to hit a robust .306 off of him this season.

The Mariners and Paxton have value as the moneyline favorites here, but the Over of 8.5 is also a very strong play and one of my Monday MLB Picks.

2016 YTD MLB: 41-24-3, +15.71 Units
Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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