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MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Gallen Struggle Against Another Elite Team?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 3, 2023 2:55 PM EDT • 5 min 64 sec read.

Nine Major League Baseball teams aim for sweeps Sunday as the first series of September conclude. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds from the best MLB betting sites.

With less than 30 games remaining in the MLB regular season, every game involving National League wild-card contenders is massive, as four teams are now within one game of the final playoff spot. Of those four teams, the Miami Marlins are the only ones with an active winning streak of three-plus games, but they need all the wins they can get as they play the teams with the four best records in the NL over the next 13 games.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

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Sunday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 runs scored (-120 via bet365) vs. Royals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBIs (+130 via bet365) vs. Twins ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via bet365) vs. Orioles ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Phillies-Brewers Over 9 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Sunday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Alex Verdugo Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Royals (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boston Red Sox leadoff man Alex Verdugo has scored 55 runs in 73 games when batting leadoff this season, and 10 of his 13 home runs have come from that spot. Verdugo’s slash line numbers are down from .290/.360/.457 in the first half of the season to .248/.296/.416 in the second half, but he is in his better hitting split with a .893 OPS and .317 BABIP against right-handed pitchers compared to a .628 OPS and .272 BABIP against southpaws.

Thus, we like his chances for success against Kansas City Royals righty Zack Greinke (who will likely pitch after opener Taylor Clarke), as he has allowed a .325 OBA and pitched to a 1.54 WHIP against left-handed hitters.

This is a four-star play, as Verdugo has scored a run in eight of his last 12 games. And while Boston’s team total Over is just 20-27 in its previous 47 road games (-12.00 units, -21% ROI), we expect Verdugo to do his part in scoring runs for the visitors.

DraftKings charges slightly more in juice to back this Over (-125), making bet365 our go-to shop.

Player prop: Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Twins (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Corey Seager ranks sixth among all shortstops (min. 40 ABs) with a .983 OPS over the last 15 days and ranked tied for 11th with eight RBIs in that span entering the weekend. However, he still ranks second in the majors with a 1.051 OPS, and his 81 RBIs rank in the top 26. He has homered in two of the last three days, and we expect him to continue to carry a Texas Rangers offense that ranks 22nd or worse in BABIP, slugging, and wRC+ over the last 14.

Minnesota Twins righty Kenta Maeda has failed to record 15 outs in two of his last three starts and is coming off an August where his 5.04 ERA was his worst of any month since April despite inducing the highest ground-ball rate (0.70 GO/AO) in those five starts. However, Maeda has had trouble keeping the ball on the ground against left-handed hitters all season (0.44 GO/AO), and his 42.4% hard-hit rate is much higher than his 30.5% career average.

Seager has at least one RBI in seven of his last 12 games and should come through with at least one run driven in Sunday. With FanDuel and Caesars as low as +120 to record an RBI, bet365’s +130 odds present greater value.

Player prop: Zac Gallen Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Orioles (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Baltimore Orioles have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (21.0%) against right-handed pitching on the road since Aug. 1, a vast improvement on their 24.3% strikeout rate in that split up to that point. They face Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, who may win the NL Cy Young this year but has been streaky lately.

Gallen is coming off allowing a career-high four home runs and six earned runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which was the sixth time he allowed five-plus runs in a start this season. He has made five starts against teams with 80-plus wins, and pitched to a 6.21, while recording 25 strikeouts in 29 innings, making that 7.76 K/9 rate much lower than the 9.81 rate in his other starts. This is a three-star play, as Gallen has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in two of his last three starts, and he did not generate a single swing-and-miss on his fastball in his previous start, a pitch he threw 48% of the time.    

All sportsbooks are aligned with the strikeout total of O/U 5.5, but bet365 charges the least in juice, with Caesars the highest at -158.

Sunday’s MLB game picks

Total: Phillies-Brewers Over 9 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Philadelphia Phillies have scored an MLB-best 100 runs since Aug. 17 (averaging 7.1 runs per game) and are slugging a ridiculous .594 as a team in that span when the next-closest team was slugging .530. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber have been a terrorizing 1-3 in the lineup, with each slugging .808 or better in that span and combining for 24 home runs and 49 RBIs.

Philadelphia ranks 18th or worse in wRC+ and OPS against left-handed pitching in road games since the All-Star break but should continue its recent hot bats when facing Milwaukee Brewers lefty Wade Miley. 

Miley ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s wRC+ in home games against lefties is the fourth-highest since the All-Star break, and its .360 BABIP in that split ranks third in the majors. Thus, Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez could be in for a rough outing as he enters ranked in the bottom half of the league in barrel rate and has an OBA of .300 or worse on his two primary pitches this season (sinker and fastball, throwing them a combined 49.5% of the time).  

FanDuel is the only shop charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the Over.

MLB best bets made 9/3/2023 at 7:39 a.m. ET.

MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB Hits Leader OddsMLB RBI Leader Odds
MLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Wins Leader OddsMLB Win Totals
MLB MVP OddsMLB Home Run Leader OddsMLB Best Regular Season Record Odds
MLB Cy Young Award OddsMLB Strikeout Leader OddsMLB Home Run Derby Odds
MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.