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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Greene Help Reds Start Strong?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 26, 2023 4:56 PM EDT • 5 min 58 sec read.

The MLB playoffs are one week away as we make our top MLB prop picks and best bets for the final Tuesday of the regular season based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

Just one of the new series beginning on Tuesday is between two teams in the playoff picture, as the Atlanta Braves host the Chicago Cubs. Atlanta begins the day with a 3.5-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while Chicago is tied for the second NL wild-card spot. However, the Cubs are just one game up on the Miami Marlins for the third slot.   

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Tuesday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Braxton Garrett Under 1.5 earned runs vs. Mets (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Cubs (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Brewers (+180 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Team prop: Reds first-half ML vs. Guardians (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Braxton Garrett Under 1.5 earned runs vs. Mets (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New York Mets have been struggling against left-handed pitching all season, going 56-51 against right-handers and 15-34 when facing lefties. The latter record includes losing their last three, and one of those defeats came against Miami Marlins southpaw Braxton Garrett. He held the Mets to one unearned run on five hits across six innings while striking out seven in his last start.

Garrett has potentially earned a Game 1 start in the playoffs if the Marlins qualify. He's posted a minuscule 1.86 ERA over his previous seven outings, with quality starts in five of his last six and one earned run allowed in 15 2/3 innings during September. 

This is a solid four-star play, as the Mets rank outside the top 10 in wOBA, OPS, BABIP, and BB/K rate in home games against southpaws since Aug. 1. And considering New York ranks 20th in HR/FB (12.1%) during that split, it will likely need to find other ways to manufacture runs against Garrett, who hasn't allowed a home run in eight of his last 10 starts.

With Caesars and DraftKings offering lower +120 and +125 odds, respectively, bet365 is our go-to shop for the best value.

Player prop: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Cubs (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele likely threw away any chance of winning the Cy Young Award, as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs and 15 hits over his last nine innings. More surprising is that those poor starts came against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank seventh and 12th, respectively, in the National League in runs scored. 

Steele’s ERA is up nearly a full run when comparing before the All-Star Break to the second half (2.56 to 3.52). He hasn't been benefitting from his typical swing-and-miss stuff lately, generating whiffs on 19 of 82 swings over his last two starts. That's a dangerous way to make a living against an Atlanta Braves lineup with a 27-point gap in its MLB-leading ISO between the club and the second-place team. That's larger than the distance between second and sixth place.

This is a four-star play, as Acuna is slashing .321/.345/.786 over the last seven days, and his 1.131 OPS during that span leads all Braves hitters (minimum five at-bats). Additionally, Acuna is still motivated to add to his MVP case down the stretch, and Atlanta needs more wins to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

DraftKings is the only one of our best live betting sites offering a standard price of -110 for this wager, as bet365 and Caesars are juiced to -115 and -121, respectively.

Player prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Brewers (+180 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has slashed .290/.324/.581 across 31 career at-bats against Milwaukee Brewers righty Adrian Houser.

All three of Goldschmidt’s extra-base hits in those matchups have been home runs, and Houser is struggling down the stretch while posting a 5.04 ERA in 10 second-half starts. Houser has been slightly tougher on left-handers (.268 OBA) than righties (.293 OBA). So expect a productive day from Goldschmidt, whose .322 batting average with two outs since last season is the third-best in MLB, according to Inside Edge.

Caesars offers a price as low as +156 for Goldschmidt to drive in a run, making the +180 odds found at bet365 seem like a steal. 

Tuesday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Reds first half ML vs. Guardians (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Cincinnati Reds didn't do themselves any favors over the weekend while losing two of three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they enter the day with just an 8% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. However, their most reliable starting pitcher is on the mound to keep the team's slim playoff hopes alive. Hunter Greene is the only Reds starting pitcher to earn a win in September.

Greene recorded 14 strikeouts during his last appearance against the Minnesota Twins, a single-game high from a Reds starting pitcher since 2000. He left the game after seven innings with a 3-1 lead, but the bullpen promptly allowed four runs over the final two innings and the club lost 5-3.

The Reds' bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA (5.08) and 28th in xFIP (5.47) throughout September, so we're limiting this wager to the first five innings. It's safe to expect Cincinnati to jump on Cleveland Guardians righty Lucas Giolito, who has allowed 10 home runs in his previous 28 frames. Additionally, Giolito’s 32.1% ground-ball rate is headed to being the worst of his career, and his 42.9% hard-hit contact rate is the worst since his 46.5% result when he pitched just 21 1/3 innings in 2016.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks where you can find Cincinnati’s full-game moneyline odds at cheaper than -110 (-104). That's why we don't mind paying the slightly more expensive -110 price tag, which matches the nine-inning odds from several other books.

MLB best bets made 9/26/2023 at 6:15 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.