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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Snell Improve Cy Young Resume?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 25, 2023 3:11 PM EDT • 5 min 8 sec read.

Monday's four-game Major League Baseball schedule features a makeup of a rainout from the weekend and three West Coast games, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the leading MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

The Texas Rangers have used a five-game winning streak to build a 2.5-game cushion over the Houston Astros in the AL West. The Astros start a huge three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on Monday. With just a half-game separating the two teams, Monday's contest is critical in the American League playoff picture, both in the AL West and the league's wild-card race.   

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via bet365, DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Monday’s MLB best bets

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Monday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Josh Jung Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Angels (+215 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Rangers slugger Josh Jung has picked up right where he left off in the six games since returning from injury following a six-week IL stint. Despite going hitless in his last eight at-bats, Jung is still batting .250 with 11 total bases in the past week, and he's driven in a run during two of the six games over that stretch.

He's in his much better hitting split against the southpaw Patrick Sandoval on Monday, as Jung has slashed .340/.375/.651 against lefties during 2022, and he's posting a .254/.304/.435 slash line against right-handed pitching.

Sandoval has logged only one win in his last nine starts while pitching to a 5.34 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in his previous seven. We expect a high-scoring game from a Rangers offense averaging eight runs per outing during a five-game winning streak. And with the Over cashing in 58.5% (24-17-4) of Texas’ division games during 2023, Jung should be a significant part of that trend continuing.  

The +215 odds at bet365 are a steal compared to the +184 and +195 offered at Caesars and DraftKings, respectively.

Player prop: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Astros (-155 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole may have already wrapped up the Cy Young Award, but Mariners righty Luis Castillo is making a solid case for a unanimous second-place finish.

Castillo has won seven of his previous eight starts while registering six quality starts during that span. He's recorded eight strikeouts apiece in his last three outings and struck out six-plus batters in four of his previous five.

In his eight-strikeout effort during his last appearance, Castillo became the eighth pitcher in Mariners history to record at least 200 punchouts in a season. Castillo’s Stuff+ rating of 88 doesn't jump off the page over that torrid stretch since Aug. 10, but he's throwing his fastball more than 50% of the time and challenging hitters with an overpowering arsenal.

This remains a solid four-star play despite the Astros producing the third-lowest strikeout rate over that period. They rank 19th in BABIP, which increases Castillo’s chances to turn in a longer outing.

Caesars and bet365 offer the cheapest price to back the Over, as DraftKings and FanDuel charge -140.

Player prop: Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs vs. Giants (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is one of Blake Snell’s last chances to polish his NL Cy Young Award resume, and the opponent is ideal.

San Francisco ranks 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS against southpaws during 2023, and the team is dead last in ISO in that split. The Giants have also posted the third-highest strikeout rate among NL teams in home games against left-handed pitching during 2023, so we expect Snell to pitch to the caliber of his 1.43 ERA and 0.93 WHIP that he's posted during his previous seven outings.

This is a four-star play, as Snell’s 2.13 road ERA is 0.45 runs better than the next-best pitcher. He's also pitching at Oracle Park, which suppresses home runs by 25% and runs by 4%, according to BallPark Pal.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook where one can back Snell’s Under earned runs prop at less than standard -110 odds, while bet365 charges the steepest price (-115).

Monday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Diamondbacks ML vs. Yankees (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The New York Yankees have been abysmal against right-handed pitching during 2023 while posting a sub-.500 record (63-64). They rank 25th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA and are batting a collective .221 in that split, which is better than only the Oakland Athletics.

The Yankees survive primarily on home runs, but Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard lately while allowing just two dingers in his previous 36 1/3 innings.

The Diamondbacks are one of six NL teams over .500 on the road this season, and we don't expect much to be left in Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt's tank over his last two starts. He's thrown 151 innings in 2023 after a previous career-high of 57 2/3.  

FanDuel is our go-to shop as Diamondbacks backers, as it's the only one of our best sports betting sites listing the favorites at lower than -121 odds.

MLB best bets made 9/25/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.