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MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Miller Lead Dodgers to Win?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 20, 2023 2:24 PM EDT • 5 min 30 sec read.

Nine of Wednesday’s 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

The Miami Marlins improved to an incredible 31-13 in one-run games with a 4-3 win over the New York Mets. By comparison, only one other team is more than 10 games over .500 in one-run games. The victory brought their record to 79-73, making it more likely they finish with a winning record for the first time in a full season since 2009.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Wednesday’s MLB best bets

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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Bobby Miller to record a win vs. Tigers (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller has done a fabulous job stabilizing the rotation amid several injuries. Miller has won four of his last seven starts, with those four wins all coming against teams currently occupying playoff spots (Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers).

Perhaps we should be somewhat nervous that Miller has pitched to a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts against teams under .500. However, the Detroit Tigers have averaged fewer than four runs per game in their last eight games against winning teams and rank outside the top 10 in nearly every offensive category in road games since Aug. 1.

We are getting good value on this wager, considering Tigers righty Reese Olson has made three consecutive quality starts in September while pitching to a 1.37 ERA. But in his four starts before that against teams over .500, Olson pitched to a 6.96 ERA, and he still ranks in the bottom fourth of the league in barrels, hard-hit contact, and xERA despite his recent hot stretch.

The fact that Caesars does not offer plus-money odds for this wager (-104) makes DraftKings’ odds seem like a steal.

Player prop: Logan Webb Over 18.5 outs recorded vs. Diamondbacks (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The San Francisco Giants have a brutal upcoming schedule with nine games in nine days against their three biggest NL West rivals, so we expect manager Gabe Kapler to ask a lot of ace Logan Webb in this pivotal matchup, especially since some openers and bullpen days will be needed down the stretch.

Webb has recorded 18-plus outs in four straight starts and eight of 10, and he is the only pitcher in the league to throw 200-plus innings this year. He has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a .217/.275/.346 slash line in 115 combined at-bats, and Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the league in BABIP, wOBA, and OPS in home games against righties since Aug. 1. This is a three-star play, as Webb’s 2.62 career ERA against the Diamondbacks is his best against any NL West rival, and he has thrown seven innings in all three starts against them this year.

DraftKings (+135) and Caesars (+127) each return at least $15 less for this wager, so the best value for Over backers is at bet365.

Player prop: Joey Meneses Over 0.5 RBIs vs. White Sox (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Chicago White Sox rookie Jesse Scholtens has had a rough go of it on the mound this season, especially lately, as he is 0-5 with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP over his previous seven starts. Scholtens seems more suited for a bullpen role, as his pre-All-Star Break numbers were much better (3.45 ERA, .250 OBA) in 11 appearances (two starts). However, he has made nine starts in 14 appearances post-All-Star Break, and his ERA and OBA have shot up to 5.57 and .303, respectively.

We have identified Washington Nationals slugger Joey Meneses as our go-to hitter in this game, as Scholtens has a .324 OBA and 1.77 WHIP against right-handed batters and is much tougher on lefties (.235 OBA, 1.20 WHIP).

Meneses leads all Nationals hitters with a .279 average and 84 RBIs and entered Tuesday with eight hits in his last 25 at-bats and at least one RBI in two of his previous three games, before belting a pinch-hit three home runs. With fellow teammate Lane Thomas slashing .106/.120/.277 over the previous 15 days, we look for Meneses to pick up the slack offensively.

Caesars and DraftKings are at +133 and +150 odds, respectively, for this wager, making bet365 our go-to best sportsbook.

Wednesday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Twins ML vs. Reds (+102 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Cincinnati Reds have lost just one of their last five series and remain in the thick of the NL wild-card race. However, they are playing with fire, as they have gotten just two wins from starting pitchers in September. Though one of those wins came from today’s starter, Hunter Greene, he has looked shaky in the five starts since returning from injury, and we expect the Minnesota Twins to capitalize.

Greene has walked three-plus batters in his five starts since Aug. 20 (after two months on the IL), and that could plague him against a Twins lineup that ranks second in BB/K ratio in road games against right-handed pitching since Aug. 1.

Minnesota is 3-1 in Bailey Ober’s last four starts, and his xwOBAcon and hard-hit contact rate have improved each of the previous three seasons. In addition, Ober’s barrel percentage is his best in his young three-year career, and his xBA is a combined 40 points better than his actual OBA on his two primary pitches (fastball and changeup), which he throws 72.4% of the time.

BetRivers is the only one of our best sports betting apps at which one can back the underdogs at plus-money odds.

MLB best bets made 9/20/2023 at 6:17 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.