Four new series begin Tuesday as another jampacked Major League Baseball slate commences. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds from our top sports betting apps.
Offenses around Major League Baseball had subpar days Monday, as the first four games of the day ended in shutouts. Of those, two teams (the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals) nearly threw a no-hitter and complete game. Will we see more offense Tuesday?
Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- San Diego Padres (+110) vs. Miami Marlins (-130)
- Texas Rangers (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers (+115)
- Cleveland Guardians (+125) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-145)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-155)
- Cincinnati Reds (+155) vs. Boston Red Sox (-180)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+120) vs. New York Mets (-140)
- Kansas City Royals (+155) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-180)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-190) vs. Chicago Cubs (+160)
- Los Angeles Angels (+120) vs. Chicago White Sox (-140)
- Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Houston Astros (+105)
- Atlanta Braves (-260) vs. Oakland Athletics (+220)
- Colorado Rockies (+205) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-245)
- New York Yankees (+125) vs. Seattle Mariners (-145)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) vs. San Francisco Giants (-150)
- Washington Nationals (+265) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-320)
Tuesday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Martin Perez Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Tigers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+360 via Caesars) vs. White Sox ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 runs scored (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Runline: Rays -1.5 runs vs. Cubs (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Martin Perez Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Tigers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Texas Rangers southpaw Martin Perez has an inflated 6-1 record through 10 starts, in large part because half of his starts have come against teams at least five games under .500.
Though unbeaten in his last eight starts, Perez has not taken advantage of a soft May schedule where he has made three starts out of four against teams that entered Monday fourth or worse in their divisions. Yet, he has pitched to a 5.96 ERA in that span and is not inducing many swings and misses, recording more than three strikeouts just once.
With an Over/Under of 9.5 runs, oddsmakers are tipping their hand that they expect the Detroit Tigers to get involved in the scoring. Detroit ranks ninth in wRC+ and 11th in BABIP over the last seven days, an important statistic given how much Perez allows contact.
We are saving some money making this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars offers -117 odds for the same prop.
Player prop: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run vs. White Sox (+360 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Shohei Ohtani's 12 home runs are still tied for the team lead despite him hitting just one in the last eight games. However, the Los Angeles Angels star has homered in two of his last five road games and faces a pitcher on pace for the worst ground ball/flyball ratio of his career.
Chicago White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has allowed a fly-ball rate of 29.8%, which is on pace to rise for the fourth consecutive year. In addition, his 9.1 K/9 rate is on pace to be his lowest of the previous four seasons.
This is a three-star play as Giolito has allowed at least one home run in five consecutive starts, and the wind seems to favor the hitters given the high total of 9.5 runs. Caesars offers the best value by far for this prop, as FanDuel and DraftKings are at +300 and +310, respectively.
Player prop: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Rockies (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in an offensive slump, scoring four or fewer runs in four of their last six games. However, the perfect remedy is a meeting with the Colorado Rockies, whose starters' ERA and FIP rank 28th and 29th, respectively.
Though today's starter, Kyle Freeland, has limited the damage with two or fewer earned runs allowed in four of his last five starts, he has allowed seven or more hits in three of four, which suggests regression from a runs standpoint is coming. Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte is slashing .324/.439/.529 in 34 career at-bats against Freeland and has great odds to cross the plate, given that he has done so in five of the last eight games.
Marte should be well-rested after Tuesday’s off day, and we are excited to back his relatively low odds at DraftKings as sportsbooks like FanDuel are much higher on him at -155 odds.
Tuesday’s MLB game picks
Runline: Rays -1.5 vs. Cubs (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the Tampa Bay Rays are off to an historic start at home, winning 26 of their first 32 games at Tropicana Field, they have come back to earth on the road, going 0-2-1 in their last three road series. However, despite the Rays nearly getting no-hit Tuesday, this game's starting pitching matchup is so lopsided that we are willing to lay the -1.5 runs with the favorites for extra value.
Rays starter Shane McClanahan has the third-lowest ERA (2.11) of any American League pitcher over the last six weeks (min. 45 IP), per StatsCentre. At one point last season, McClanahan had six consecutive outings of six-plus innings pitched and five or fewer baserunners allowed, and his HR/9 rate this year is even better than what he finished last year's All-Star campaign with.
So while McClanahan has a troubling 9.7% walk rate, the Chicago Cubs tend to be a more free-swinging team against left-handed starting pitchers, ranking seventh in walk rate against southpaws but third overall.
However, this is a confident four-star play mostly because Kyle Hendricks allowed a .333 OBA in his first start and recorded three times as many flyouts as ground ball outs, a dangerous way to live against the Rays lineup.
MLB best bets made 5/30/2023 at 7:08 a.m. ET.
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