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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Stanton Provide Power in Judge’s Absence?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 7, 2023 9:11 AM EDT • 4 min 5 sec read.

Just one of Major League Baseball’s first-place teams has bigger than a 4.5-game lead as another 15-game slate is on tap Wednesday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

The Texas Rangers are just 2.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the best record in baseball, but their futures odds took a massive hit when ace Jacob deGrom was ruled out for the rest of the season with a UCL tear. The Rangers’ World Series odds are as low as +1500 at DraftKings to as high as +2000 at FanDuel, but for now, they have not missed a beat, entering the day on a five-game winning streak.    

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Oakland Athletics (+155) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-180)
  • Seattle Mariners (+100) vs. San Diego Padres (-120)
  • Detroit Tigers (+210) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-250)
  • Kansas City Royals (+150) vs. Miami Marlins (-175)
  • Minnesota Twins (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) vs. Washington Nationals (+115)
  • Chicago White Sox (+110) vs. New York Yankees (-130)
  • Houston Astros (+130) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-150)
  • Boston Red Sox (+105) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-125)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+140)
  • New York Mets (+100) vs. Atlanta Braves (-120)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-140)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
  • San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Colorado Rockies (+170)
  • Chicago Cubs (+120) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-140)

Wednesday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+360 via DraftKings) vs. White Sox ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Charlie Morton Over 6.5 strikeouts (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Mets ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Logan Webb Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Mariners (+105 via WynnBet) vs. Padres ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run vs. White Sox (+360 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

With the uncertainty of the health of Aaron Judge and his injured toe, Giancarlo Stanton takes the reigns of the most feared power hitter in the New York Yankees lineup. He faces Chicago White Sox righty Lance Lynn, whose HR/9 rate has risen each of the last three seasons, and whose current 2.0 HR/9 is on pace to be the worst of his career.

Lynn has allowed at least one home run in nine of 12 starts and could be in for a rough outing similar to his last start when he tied a season-high with three home runs allowed to Los Angeles Angels hitters.

Stanton has homered once in 24 career at-bats against Lynn and already has gone yard once in just three games since returning from the IL. This is a three-star play as Stanton hit 18 of his 31 home runs at Yankee Stadium last year while slugging .565 at home compared to .380 on the road.

There is great value in these odds at DraftKings considering Stanton is as low as +310 at Caesars to homer.

Player prop: Charlie Morton Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Charlie Morton has lost three consecutive starts, and his ERA has risen from 2.85 to 3.62 in that span. However, he has also allowed three or fewer earned runs in two of those starts, and the most encouraging thing is his increased strikeout rate.

Morton recorded more than five strikeouts in just two of five starts in April but has since registered six-plus in five of six starts. That includes a six-strikeout performance at Citi Field on May 1. The New York Mets took an aggressive approach against Morton that day, as he threw 92 pitches despite issuing three walks and six hits.

Manager Brian Snitker has given Morton a long leash of late, as the righty has thrown 95-plus pitches in every start since the beginning of May, despite allowing four or more runs twice.

This is a four-star play, as Morton has recorded 53 strikeouts in 170 combined at-bats against current Mets hitters, and that 31.2% strikeout rate is significantly higher than his 26.8% career average. One can also find plus-money odds (but slightly lower ones) at some of our other best sports betting apps, including Caesars and FanDuel, or you can opt for the O/U of 5.5 strikeouts at PointsBet for steeper -160 odds.

Player prop: Logan Webb Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Rockies (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We are taking on the mystique of Coors Field with this Under, given Logan Webb's recent success there. Webb is 3-1 with a 4.59 ERA in six career road starts against the Colorado Rockies, but he won both of his starts at Coors Field last year while pitching to a 2.19 ERA and minuscule 0.57 WHIP.

Webb's 1.95 ERA since April 21 is the fourth-lowest of any qualified starting pitcher, and his 3.01 xFIP is the lowest of any of the three pitchers ahead of him, despite having the highest HR/FB rate (11.8%) of the four. Long balls should not be an issue against a Rockies team that has hit the fifth-fewest home runs in the league (49). 

We are making this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars is much lower at +104 odds in comparison.

Wednesday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Mariners ML vs. Padres (+105 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

There have not been many better pitchers than San Diego Padres righty Michael Wacha of late, as his 1.73 ERA is the third-best among qualified starters since April 21. However, regression should be coming, as Wacha ranked 54th in xFIP in that span entering Tuesday, with a big reason being an average 16.3 K-BB percentage.

We prefer to overlook Wacha's hot recent stretch in favor of his lack of success against current Seattle Mariners hitters, who have combined for a .448/.495/.770 slash line in 87 at-bats against him. Five Mariners (Ty France, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez, and AJ Pollock) all have a batting average of at least .385 and an OPS of 1.059 or higher (minimum 10 at-bats) against Wacha, so Seattle has flexibility in the lineup with how to manage hitters who have done damage against the righty.

MLB best bets made 6/7/2023 at 6:37 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.