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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Giolito’s Control Issues Continue?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 6, 2023 9:10 AM EDT • 3 min 56 sec read.

Ten new series begin Tuesday as a full 15-game Major League Baseball slate resumes. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.

The National League East was supposed to be hotly contested, but instead, the Atlanta Braves’ lead is the largest of the three NL divisions. They host the New York Mets starting Tuesday, with a chance to put even more separation between them. Elsewhere, two division leaders meet in Tampa Bay as the Rays host the Minnesota Twins.    

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Minnesota Twins (+150) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-175)
  • Detroit Tigers (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
  • Kansas City Royals (+130) vs. Miami Marlins (-150)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) vs. Washington Nationals (+135)
  • Oakland Athletics (+200) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-240)
  • Chicago White Sox (+145) vs. New York Yankees (-170)
  • Houston Astros (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
  • Boston Red Sox (+100) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-120)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+165)
  • New York Mets (+140) vs. Atlanta Braves (-165)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+115) vs. Texas Rangers (-135)
  • San Francisco Giants (-140) vs. Colorado Rockies (+120)
  • Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-130)
  • Seattle Mariners (+115) vs. San Diego Padres (-135)

Tuesday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Mitch Keller Over 6.5 strikeouts (-155 via PointBet) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Lucas Giolito Over 1.5 walks (-175 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs (+155 via FanDuel) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+106 via FanDuel) vs. Nationals ⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Mitch Keller Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Athletics (-155 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Mitch Keller is enjoying a career year, as he is 7-1 despite entering the season with a 12-29 overall record. Keller’s 11.2 K/9 is on pace to be his best since his first season in 2019, when he recorded a 12.2 K/9 rate through 48 innings. Stuff+ ranks Keller’s fastball as the 16th-best in baseball, while he also possesses a top-10 slider. And per Mike Kurland on Twitter, Keller is one of three qualified pitchers over the previous 30 days to have a K-BB% of at least 25% and a WHIP below 1.00.

This is a four-star play, as Keller has struck out eight-plus batters in seven straight starts and faces an Oakland Athletics team with the fourth-worst strikeout rate (25.1%) in MLB.

We do not mind paying slightly extra in juice at PointsBet, as FanDuel is offering +112 odds at an O/U of 7.5. Caesars and DraftKings are both at -164 on Over 6.5.

Player prop: Lucas Giolito Over 1.5 walks vs. Yankees (-175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lucas Giolito’s walk rate (7.3%) is on pace to be only the third-best of his career, which is a sign he has struggled with command considering he is still just in the 66th percentile for walk rate. Giolito has issued multiple walks in six of his 12 starts and four outings in May.

Though the New York Yankees entered Monday just 18th in walk rate, they benefit from a home game against Giolito. The righty has a 5.68 ERA on the road with 14 walks in 31 2/3 innings, compared to just seven walks in 36 2/3 innings at home.

This is a four-star play, as Giolito has had control issues when facing New York. He has held current Yankees to a .175 batting average but allowed a high .364 on-base percentage thanks to 16 walks (with 15 strikeouts) in 63 at-bats. The value at DraftKings for this wager slightly exceeds that at Caesars, which has -178 odds for the same number.

Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Guardians (+155 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cleveland Guardians righty Shane Bieber has been widely discussed as potentially being moved at the trade deadline, and it might be wise for the Guardians to move him based on his seemingly diminished skills. In his Cy Young year of 2020, Bieber had a 41.1% strikeout rate in 77 innings. However, through 75 innings this year, Bieber’s strikeout rate is down to 16.9%, and he ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in xBA, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity.

Rafael Devers already has solid career numbers against Bieber, with two of his three hits in 11 at-bats going for home runs. Devers ranks third in the league with 49 RBIs, and he should have an advantage over Bieber, who has seen his WHIP increase for three consecutive months and is at 1.65 against left-handed batters this season.

FanDuel offers the most generous odds for this wager, as the closest competitor is DraftKings at +145.

Tuesday’s MLB game picks

Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 vs. Nationals (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-0-1 in their last six road series and now face a Washington Nationals team that is an NL-worst 12-19 at home and 11-22 against teams over .500.

One of southpaw Tommy Henry’s three quality starts this season was against the Nationals, as he held them to two runs over six innings. The team had a 6-2 lead entering the ninth inning that day but allowed five runs and squandered its chances of covering another run line. We expect a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks eighth in xFIP to do a much better job backing up Henry against the league’s 23rd-ranked offense.

This is a three-star play, as the Diamondbacks lost their last road game before starting a 10-game homestand and are 8-1 against the run line (47.4% ROI) after a road loss this season. That is the second-best record in MLB, per Inside Edge.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook at which one can find Arizona at -1.5 runs for better than +105 odds.

MLB best bets made 6/6/2023 at 6:24 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.