MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Olson Add to NL Home Run Lead?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 9, 2023 12:20 PM EDT • 5 minute read

Three of Wednesday’s 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window, giving bettors a chance to cash in early. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

The only two MLB teams with active winning streaks longer than three games reside in the AL West, as the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners have won eight and six consecutive games, respectively.

The Mariners are now 14-4 in their last 18 and sit two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the last AL wild-card spot. What will the standings look like 24 hours from now?

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds

Miami Marlins (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Colorado Rockies (+190) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-230)
Texas Rangers (-298) vs. Oakland Athletics (+240)
St. Louis Cardinals (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
Minnesota Twins (-155) vs. Detroit Tigers (+130)
Washington Nationals (+150) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
Houston Astros (-102) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-118)
Atlanta Braves (-298) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+240)
Kansas City Royals (+185) vs. Boston Red Sox (-225)
Chicago Cubs (-115) vs. New York Mets (-105)
Toronto Blue Jays (-148) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+124)
New York Yankees (OFF) vs. Chicago White Sox
San Francisco Giants (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+110)
San Diego Padres (OFF) vs. Seattle Mariners

Wednesday’s MLB best bets

Player prop: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs (-140 via bet365) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Matt Olson to hit a home run (+260 via FanDuel) vs. Pirates ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Yu Darvish to record a win (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Mariners ⭐⭐⭐
Moneyline: Dodgers (-125 via WynnBet) vs. Diamondbacks ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Guardians (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman is third on the AL Cy Young leaderboard at most sportsbooks and has an excellent opportunity to add to his resume Wednesday. The Cleveland Guardians are already without the injured Josh Naylor, who leads the team in average (.306) and RBIs (79). They could also be without Jose Ramirez if MLB upholds its three-game suspension it issued Monday (Ramirez is appealing).

Gausman leads the American League in strikeouts (177), K/9 (12.1), and FIP (2.79), one year after his 2.38 FIP was the major’s best. He also leads the AL in pitching WAR and is one of six pitchers since 2022 (min. 195 IP) with a K/9 rate of 9.5 or higher and a BB/9 rate of less than 2.0, per Louis Addeo-Weiss.

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Among our best sports betting apps, DraftKings has the same price as bet365.

Player prop: Matt Olson to hit home run vs. Pirates (+260 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Quinn Priester is coming off the best of his first four career starts, which is not saying much considering he lasted only four innings while allowing three runs. Priester’s 2.3 HR/9 rate is alarming, especially when facing an Atlanta Braves offense that is on pace for 313 home runs, which would smash the record set by the Minnesota Twins in 2019 (307).

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Priester has allowed a slightly lower home run rate to left-handed hitters than righties, but lefties are also batting .333 against him. Thus, we are getting great value at FanDuel on Olson to hit his NL-leading 40th home run (his odds are as low as +205 at Caesars).

Player prop: Yu Darvish to record win vs. Mariners (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Yu Darvish is on pace for his worst ERA (4.41) since 2018 and his worst FIP (4.10) since 2019. However, he has shown improvement lately, throwing quality starts in four of his last five appearances while holding the top two highest-scoring teams in the league (Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers) to two runs over 13 innings in his previous two.

Darvish has had great success against current Mariners hitters over a small sample size, allowing a .156/.236/.235 slash line in 64 combined at-bats.

DraftKings posted this market early Wednesday afternoon with the +115 odds we were hoping to see.

Wednesday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (-125 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 7-22 in their last 29 games and are the only team still searching for their first win since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers are an NL-best 20-9 in that same stretch and were 7-2 in their last nine series leading up to this NL West clash.

This line is lower than it should be, as Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly held the Dodgers to two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over two starts earlier this year. However, Kelly is still 0-10 with a 5.45 ERA in 14 starts against L.A. and allowed a .306/.378/.511 slash line in 186 combined at-bats to current Dodgers hitters. Thus, a Dodgers lineup that ranks first in MLB in wRC+, on-base percentage, OPS, and wOBA since July 1 should have no issue battering Kelly again.

This line opened at -120 and has been bet up everywhere since then, but WynnBet is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which it has not reached -130 or higher yet.

MLB best bets made 8/9/2023 at 6:55 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”