MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Scherzer Win in Rangers Debut?

Thursday is a popular getaway day in Major League Baseball, and that is especially true this week, with five of the 11 total games scheduled for the afternoon slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.

All eyes will be on the early afternoon tilt between the Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers, as Max Scherzer makes his debut for the AL West contenders.

The Rangers continue to be pushed by the Houston Astros, who begin a four-game road series against the New York Yankees.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have played a brutal schedule of late, with this being their third consecutive series against one of the AL’s top-four teams.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB schedule and odds

• Chicago White Sox (+215) vs. Texas Rangers (-265)
• New York Mets (-102) vs. Kansas City Royals (-118)
• Baltimore Orioles (+136) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-162)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) vs. San Francisco Giants (-192)
• Houston Astros (-112) vs. New York Yankees (-108)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
• Minnesota Twins (-135) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+114)
• Cincinnati Reds (+136) vs. Chicago Cubs (-162)
• Seattle Mariners (+130) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-155)
• Oakland Athletics (+225) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-278)

Thursday’s MLB best bets

• Player prop: Max Scherzer to record win (-110 via PointsBet) vs. White Sox ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Sonny Gray Under 4.5 strikeouts (+124 via FanDuel) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Thursday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Max Scherzer to record win vs. White Sox (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

Scherzer’s ERA is on track to be over 4.00 for the first time since 2011, but his 3.66 xERA suggests positive regression is coming. Scherzer had two phenomenal home starts to finish his time with the New York Mets, allowing just one earned run over 14 innings while striking out 13 against the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now Scherzer faces a Chicago White Sox lineup that dealt one of its best power hitters in Jake Burger and ranks 27th in batting average, 23rd in BABIP, and has the AL’s fourth-worst strikeout percentage (25.9%) in road games against right-handed pitchers since June 1.

This is a three-star play, as Scherzer’s 2.43 ERA against the White Sox is his second-lowest against any opponent he has faced 12-plus times in his career (he has faced 19 teams that many times), and we expect his Rangers tenure to begin successfully.

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No moneyline has moved more in favor of Texas in the last 24 hours, as it could have been found at -198 at DraftKings yesterday afternoon. Compared to PointsBet, it will cost slightly more to back Scherzer and the Rangers at DraftKings and Caesars, who charge -115 and -117 odds, respectively, for this same prop.

Player prop: Sonny Gray Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Cardinals (+124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Entering yesterday, Sonny Gray’s 19 starts allowing three runs or fewer were tied for the most in the American League with Gerrit Cole. And while he ranks eighth in fWAR among all starting pitchers, Gray has also not earned a win since the calendar turned to May (spanning 15 starts) and has not been the strikeout pitcher we have been accustomed to him being, with five or fewer strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Gray’s 23.3 K% has not been this low since 2018, and his xERA of 4.02 compared to his actual 3.22 ERA suggests regression is coming as long as he keeps allowing balls in play. Gray’s 42.2% hard-hit percentage is his worst since 2016, and his whiff percentage on his four-seam fastball - a pitch he throws 24.1% of the time - is just 13.9%.

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This would be a more confident four-star play if we backed the O/U of 5.5 strikeouts that Caesars and DraftKings offer. But their juice is upward of -175 for the Under of 5.5, so this is strictly a value play, as the +124 odds at FanDuel for one less strikeout are too good of value to ignore.

Player prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases vs. Athletics (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oakland Athletics southpaw JP Sears has odd reverse splits, allowing a .300 OBA to left-handed hitters and a .206 OBA to righties. Freddie Freeman has no issues facing southpaws as a left-handed batter, leading the Los Angeles Dodgers with a .325 batting average in that split. His 1.052 OPS is second to Mookie Betts against lefties, but Freeman has 83 total bases against southpaws, while no other Dodger has more than 65.

This is a confident four-star play, as Freeman is red-hot in his last 20 at-bats, slashing .550/.571/.700. He has just three extra-base hits (all doubles) in that span. Still, the power numbers will come for a player who makes contact as consistently as Freeman does, and he is as likely as any player to cash this Over with a multi-hit day if needed.

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The plus-money odds that DraftKings offer are a steal compared to FanDuel’s price of -125 or those found at our other best sports betting apps.

Thursday’s MLB game picks

Run line: Cubs -1.5 vs. Reds (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A few weeks ago, it would have been blasphemous to think the Chicago Cubs would add arguably the most talented hitter at the trade deadline, but they did just that with the addition of Jeimer Candelario. Candelario provides much-needed versatility at first and third base for the Cubs, two positions at which they ranked 29th and 18th in bWAR, respectively.

The Cubs used a hot stretch to prove to their front office they were worthy of “going for it,” as their 12 wins since July 18 are the most in MLB. Righty Jameson Taillon is also experiencing a tremendous mid-season turnaround, leading the team to four consecutive wins in his last four starts (with a combined plus-26 run differential) after the team went 2-12 in his first 14 starts.

Bettors who wagered on Chicago’s moneyline for the last 46 games would be +11 units with a 19% ROI, and we expect another convincing victory after out-scoring Cincinnati 36-15 over the last two games. 

MLB best bets made 8/3/2023 at 7:07 a.m. ET.

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)