MLB Predictions & Player Props Today, Aug. 10
With 16 games scheduled in MLB on Saturday, there's a plethora of options for today's MLB predictions and player props based on the top odds at our best sports betting sites.
No team in the majors is currently on pace for more than 96 wins, and that should make for some exciting division and wild card races down the stretch as teams hope to shorten their World Series odds.
The standalone game in the early afternoon time slot is the first game of the doubleheader between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
However, the biggest game among American League opponents is the AL Central clash between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins, with the Twins beginning the day 1.5 games back of the Guardians after sweeping yesterday’s twin bill.
Today’s MLB predictions
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Spencer Arrighetti Under 2.5 earned runs (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Matt Waldron to record a win (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Royce Lewis Over 0.5 RBIs (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dylan Carlson Under 0.5 hit (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
MLB player props for Saturday
Spencer Arrighetti Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -105 | OFF | OFF | -108 | +100 |
Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%
This may seem like a bold prediction, as the Boston Red Sox offense ranks in the top two in the majors in wRC+ and all three slash line categories (.295/.355/.524) over the last 30 days, while mashing 38 home runs in that span.
But this line is not taking into account how well Arrighetti has pitched of late, as he is coming off a quality start with 12 strikeouts in his last appearance. Arrighetti induced 20 whiffs and a 39% CSW% in his 100-pitch outing, and his cutter and curveball were especially effective, generating a 48% CSW% between them.
Six of Boston’s previous seven home games have seen 10-plus runs scored, but Arrighetti is deserving of the 50/50 implied probability to allow two or fewer earned runs, as he will likely be yanked from the game once things start to go poorly. Winning bettors would double their money with the generous +100 odds from bet365.
Game info: Astros vs. Red Sox | Moneyline: Red Sox (-165 via bet365) | Total: 10.5 via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET
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Matt Waldron to record a win ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +120 | OFF | OFF | +118 | +120 |
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%
Matt Waldron has recorded wins in two of his previous three starts and the San Diego Padres are 3-0 in that span. One of his seven victories on the season came when he shut out the Miami Marlins over seven innings on May 28, while striking out eight and issuing zero walks.
Since then, Miami has traded the likes of Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz, sent Nick Gordon to the minors, and placed Nick Fortes on the IL.
The Padres are an MLB-best 15-3 since the All-Star Break, and Waldron has led San Diego to a 5-1 record in his last six starts against teams currently under .500. In the lone loss, Waldron earned a no-decision after limiting the Los Angeles Angels to one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings.
With San Diego being -170 or shorter moneyline favorites in this game, Waldron should have better than a 45.45% chance to earn the victory. A winning $10 wager would pay out a $12 profit.
Game info: Padres vs. Marlins | Moneyline: Padres (-170 via bet365) | Total: 9 via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET
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Royce Lewis Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +145 | +145 | +150 | +139 | +155 |
Best odds: +155 via bet365 | Implied probability: 39.22%
If the Twins end up passing the Guardians en route to the AL Central division title, it will be because the offense carries them and Cleveland’s rotation continues to falter.
Guardians righty Gavin Williams does not exude the most confidence with one quality start in seven appearances, and Royce Lewis has mashed right-handed pitchers this season with a .982 OPS.
Lewis is still garnering generous +155 odds to drive in a run, even though he has done so in six of the previous eight games. I'm passing on Lewis’ +375 odds at bet365 to hit a home run since Williams has allowed just one home run in 63 at-bats to right-handed batters.
Nonetheless, he should find himself batting frequently with runners in scoring position, and I'm firing a $10 wager with the hopes of returning a $15.50 profit.
Game info: Guardians vs. Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-115 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Dylan Carlson Under 0.5 hits ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -110 | OFF | OFF | -109 | -110 |
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
Dylan Carlson is familiar with Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes from his time in his NL Central in the Cardinals-Brewers rivalry. But Carlson has slashed just .133/.188/.333 in 15 at-bats against Burnes, with 40% of those at-bats ending in strikeouts.
Burnes has allowed four or fewer hits in three of his previous six starts, and considering he has a .196 OBA in 11 road starts this year, Carlson should not be better than 50/50 to record a hit, even if he gets some at-bats against a trade deadline-improved Orioles bullpen.
A $10 winning wager for Carlson to go hitless pays a $9.17 profit.
Game info: Orioles vs. Rays | Moneyline: Orioles (-170 via bet365) | Total: 7.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:15 p.m. ET
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