Baseball Picks of the Day to Close the Regular Season

mlb picks of the day

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, October 1, 2017 12:20 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017 12:20 PM GMT

WIth lots of variables due to unknown lineups and pitching matchups, our MLB handicapper takes the crowdsourcing approach and focuses on games with serious line movement tailing one side. Read on as Mark Lathrop makes his final regular season MLB PIcks of the Day.

strong opposing pitcher trend points to the away underdog in this game.

Tigers vs. Twins

Bettors haven’t bought the fact that Bartolo Colon opened as a -162 over the Detroit Tigers, and have already bet that line down to -142 as of Saturday night. Anyone carrying a .320 BAA on the season over a large sample size is not deserving of this type of chalk on the MLB odds boards. Colon is also 6-14 on the season and left his last game in the 1st inning because he was sick. With his age, he had better be getting a flu shot as he is in an at-risk population because of his senior status.

The Tigers will start Anibal Sanchez here and this is actually a good spot for him. He’s carrying a 2.00 ERA over this last 3 starts and has a good career record against Minnesota with a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. There are some warning signs with Sanchez and his own BAA over the second half of the season; however, his BABIP over that same time frame is off the charts high indicating luck has been against him. I’ll assume that the Twins are looking forward to the AL Wildcard play-in game and take the underdog Tigers on the moneyline as a Sunday MLB selection

MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers MLBest Line Offered 5Dimes (+133)

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The Mets plan to start one of their best pitchers for only 1 inning or 25 pitches on the last day of the season. Their bullpen is terrible, so our MLB handicapper likes the home team here.

Mets vs. Phils

The New York Mets bullpen is sure to see at least 7 innings of work in this game, and they have the 29th ranked bullpen over the last 30 days. Over that time frame the Mets bullpen has also seen a lot of action, and have put up a 5.67 FIP. They have the double whammy of a very high walk rate and HR/FB% as a team, and I don’t see them changing that trend on the last day of the season. Especially with a lot of arms used in yesterday’s 11-inning game.

The Phillies will start Nick Pivetta, who lost earlier in the month to the Mets after giving up a multiple run= home run to put New York over the top. He’s showing similar luck-based results later in the month, yet has a 3.83 FIP indicating he is pitching alright. Pivetta’s xFIP at home especially shows the possibility of positive regression, as it sits at 3.52 on the season. There is some serious steam coming in on the Phillies for this game, and I’ll tail that steam by taking Pivetta at home over the Mets bullpen on the moneyline as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML
 
Best Line Offered 5Dimes (-117)

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2017 MLB Record, 214-191-11, +8.84 units
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