Baseball Picks of the Day for Wednesday, April 12th

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Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, April 12, 2017 1:18 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 12, 2017 1:18 PM GMT

We have spotted a game with great value on both the side and the total. He'll be parlaying those picks and also finds a live dog north of the border as he presents his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/LpibehpxkQA", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]   San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

 

This NL West series between the Rockies and Padres continues Wednesday morning, as the Padres try to keep their record afloat even if their run differential says they should lose every game.

The Padres bring Luis Perdomo to the mound on Wednesday, and no, he is not bringing any cigars out of the Coors Field humidor. Perdomo pitched 146.2 innings last year and got better as the season progressed – until fatigue hit the rookie in September. He put together two months of sub-4 ERA performance, and his splitter shows promise. On its face though, the Rockies are facing a starter that allows a career .307 batting average against with a 22% HR/FB rate. Not exactly a winning combination.

Facing Perdomo is rookie Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, who put up a great first performance last week in his first MLB start. Freeland held the Dodgers to just one hit at home at Coors Field and gave up just one earned run over 6 innings pitched. He has a decided advantage over San Diego being a lefty, as the Padres are hitting just .156 off of lefty starters over the first 3 games of the year. I see no reason not to back Freeland again here with a reasonable juice of -133. And because of Perdomo’s increased use of his sinker, I’ll wager that most balls can stay in the yard and also take Under 12.5 runs in this game.

 

Free MLB Pick: Colorado -133 & Under 12Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays

 

Chase Anderson twirled a great game against the Rockies in his last game. Here he gets a DH to help put up some runs as the fly ball pitcher looks to tame the Blue Jays.

Chase Anderson took a step back last season even if his ERA did not show it. Home run, walk and fly ball rates all increased across the board. Anderson’s pitch values and plate discipline statistics didn’t show much of a variation over year’s past though, so I’m a believer that his upside still exists. His first game in 2017 was a gem and Anderson pitched 6 innings of 3-hit ball against the Rockies while walking two. A full 25% of his fly balls were on the infield, which won’t do much damage on the scoreboard.

Facing Anderson is Marcus Stroman, who is attempting to put up his second full season after missing most of 2015 due to injury. He also pitched pretty well in his first game out with 6.1 innings of 1-run ball, while giving up 6 hits. Stroman’s fielding independent pitching ERA was in the mid-3’s last year – much better than his ERA of 4.37 indicated.

With both of these pitchers starting off well and the Toronto offense struggling, and possibly missing Josh Donaldson, I like the prospect of getting spotted a run here. I’m taking Milwaukee +1.5 as a Wednesday MLB Pick.

 Free MLB Pick Milwaukee +1.5Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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