Baseball Picks of the Day for Sunday, April 16th

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Mark Lathrop

Sunday, April 16, 2017 1:32 PM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 16, 2017 1:32 PM GMT

Handicapper looks to the AL Central for wagering value on Sunday afternoon, as he spots two games with lines that we can take advantage of as we make our MLB Picks of the Day.

  Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

 

Carlos Carrasco has started off the season hotter than Hades; however, his opponent on Sunday has an innate advantage that could cool off the Indians’ bats and keep this game close.

This pick is all about the ability of Detroit to keep this game close, as they have a pitcher on the mound that should give the Indians trouble. Cleveland is batting a cold .204 average against left-handers this year, and with Matt Boyd starting he should find a modicum of success against them. That’s all we need here with nearly even odds on the run line, and Detroit bats .264 off of right-handers, so the advantage is apparent for Detroit coming in.

Cleveland exploded for 13 runs on Saturday night against the Tigers as they jumped all over Justin Verlander for 9 earned runs through 4 innings. Detroit put up 6 runs against Corey Kluber too, not a small ask against the career 3.35 ERA pitcher. The Tigers have what it takes to keep this game close and I like them at +1.5 runs at almost even money.

 

Free MLB Pick: Detroit +1.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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 Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twin

 

James Shields has always pitched well in the early months of the season, but his recent run of success is a little more than we should expect going forward. I’m taking this opportunity to fade him and his opponent by taking the Over.

Minnesota shut out the White Sox on Saturday 6-0, as Ervin Santana pitched a complete game with 8 strikeouts. Hector Santiago looks to keep the good times rolling as he takes the mound for the 3rd time this season coming in with a 1-1 record. He’s been quite lucky already this year in compiling a .182 BABIP, which is more than 80 points better than his career average. The luck has carried on to his batted ball statistics as well, as he has induced 52.9% fly balls on the year but has just given up one home run.

James Shields 64% fly ball rate is even higher than Santana’s and we should expect a bunch of fly balls on Sunday as a result. This leads me to check the weather, and oh my could these pitchers be in trouble. The sun will be shining and the wind will be blowing out at a brisk 17 mph at game time. I’m expecting multiple dingers in this game and not much either starter will be able to do about it. I’m taking Over 9 runs as another Sunday MLB Pick.

 Free MLB Pick: Over 9Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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