Baseball Picks of the Day for Monday, July 17th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, July 17, 2017 12:26 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 17, 2017 12:26 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper is coming off of a winning weekend and looks to keep the good times rolling as we start the workweek. Read on as he's found two games in the Bay Area with excellent wagering value on Monday night.

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Two pitchers having mediocre match up in Oakland on Monday night, and even the Athletics’ offense should find success. All of this leads to our MLB handicapper taking the high road for his pick on this game.


Tampa Bay vs. Oakland

Jake Odorizzi starts this game for the Tampa Bay Rays, and his road FIP of 6.04 has been less than impressive. For some reason, he walks twice as many batters and strikes out half per 9 innings on the road. Odorizzi’s stuff hasn’t escaped the home run surge in the MLB, as he’s running an 18.3% HR/FB rate this year versus a career mark of just 11%. If there is one thing that the Athletics does well it is hit bombs, as they are tied for 7th in the league in home runs with the Washington Nationals.

Starting this game for the Athletics is Daniel Gossett, who will be making his 7th MLB start this game. He’s got a middle of the road fastball that has no movement and a changeup that is good if he doesn’t hang it, but also a wicked slider as an out pitch if he can get ahead in counts. That hasn’t happened yet for Gossett, so he is running a 5.75 FIP and 25.8% HR/FB rate on the season. With a total of just 9 on the board, 8.5 at Pinnacle with juice, I’ll be taking the Over as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs Best Line Offered at Pinnacle

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Our MLB handicapper is looking for some positive regression to finally make its mark for Cleveland pitcher, Josh Tomlin. This interleague game should be the perfect start for some of his luck to change.

Cleveland vs San Francisco

Josh Tomlin has been one of the least lucky pitchers in the league this year, and although he sports an excellent 1.06 BB/9 rate and average 4.46 FIP is only 5-9 on the season. His BABIP is extraordinarily high at .347 compared to a career mark of .284. The only red flag for his BABIP increase is a corresponding increase in line drive rate from 21% last year to 24.7% this year. Tomlin’s swinging strike rate is better than last year though, so I’m considering him a positive regression candidate during the second half.

Tomlin will match up against Matt Moore of the Giants at AT&T Park. Matt Moore would also be a candidate for positive regression except that I can’t look past his .395 batting average allowed and .695 slugging against lefties. That is a serious flaw that should be taken advantage of by Cleveland, which is why I have no problem fading Moore at home and taking the Cleveland Indians as a short Moneyline betting odds favorite at BetDSI as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Cleveland Indians MLBest Line Offered at BetDSI

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2017 MLB Record, 140-126-8, +3.39 Units

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