Baseball Picks of the Day for August 14th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 14, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 14, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper comes off of a Sunday sweep as he looks at a short Monday card to find where the value lies. Read on as he spots two games that he will be playing with confidence as the week begins.

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Our MLB handicapper spots a recent trend that will create value on one side of the line on Monday night. Read on as he breaks down how we shouldn’t get fooled by recent results in Texas.

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers

In a few ways Martin Perez of the Texas Rangers is having his worst season as an MLB pitcher. For one, his line drive rate is a career high 25.1% as well as his HR/FB rate of 13.8%. His FIP also sits at a career high of 4.74 and has gotten worse as the season has gone on. Since the All-Star break Perez has put up a 6.57 ERA, 5.84 FIP, .297 BAA, and 19.5% HR/FB rate. He’s given up a home run in 6 starts in a row coming into this game and is 2-4 in this span. Needless to say, my confidence in Martin Perez is low at this point in the season.

Perez will go up against Michael Fulmer of the Detroit Tigers on Monday, and I’ve been high on Fulmer all year long. Most of that is due to his 3.43 FIP, but also that he has an above average 49.7% ground ball rate which has helped him in this year of increased long balls. Fulmer has allowed just a .237 batting average on the year along with a 1.13 WHIP. He’s coming off the DL to make this start against the Rangers, which I believe is causing some value to back the Tigers here. I’ll take the better pitcher here on the road and pick the Tigers at +102 at Intertops as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers MLBest Line Offered Intertops

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Another pitcher makes his return from cancer on Monday night, which has been a 'bet on' situation in the past. Our MLB handicapper breaks down the game to play the game to maximum value.

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies

Chad Bettis makes his first start of 2017 on Monday night for Colorado, as he hopes to continue upon a fine 2016 campaign for the Rockies. Bettis was sidelined with testicular cancer, and missed most of this year going through chemotherapy to get clear of the disease. As James Taillon showed us earlier this year, this is a situation that can be beat and definitely a ‘bet on’ situation as a player comes back into the fold. Motivation must be at an all-time high for both the pitcher and players as Bettis returns to the mound. Not to mention a return to an above average FIP of 4.26 is in store for him.

At this point in the season, Julio Teheran is carrying a 7-10 record just like he had last year in 7 more starts. The comparisons get worse from there, as Teheran has a 5.67 FIP on the year versus a 3.69 FIP last year. The Braves new ballpark has a lot to do with it, as he carries a 7.07 ERA at home versus a 3.57 ERA on the road. I’ll take Teheran’s positive road numbers here along with a motivated Bettis to keep this game under the very high total of 12 5Dimes as one of my Monday MLB selections.

MLB Pick: Under 12 RunsBest Line Offered at 5Dimes

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2017 MLB Record, 165-147-9, +6.20 Units

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