Our MLB handicapper takes exception to the fact that the Giants are 1-9 in their last ten games at home, but find themselves heavily favored in this game versus the Padres.
Padres vs. Giants Series
The San Francisco Giants welcome NL West rival San Diego Padres to AT&T Park on Tuesday night in the first game of their mid-week series in San Francisco. The Giants are coming off of a 10-2 smacking by the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, but managed to take two of three in that important series. San Diego is coming off of a 7-2 loss on the road to the lowly Diamondbacks, and lost that series two to three to fall to 34-38 on the season. The weather will be in the 50’s at game time so don’t expect many balls to be leaving the park.
Tuesday's Starting Pitchers
Giants starter Madison Bumgarner has had two tough luck losses in a row. The first was at home versus Arizona on June 12th, when Bumgarner pitched eight innings of one-run ball but lost 1-0. In similar fashion at Seattle on June 17th, he pitched eight innings of two-run ball and lost the game 2-0. With a record of 7-4 this season, in all four of Bumgarner’s losses the Giants have scored two runs or less and have been shut out twice. It’s not a good thing when a pitcher knows he has to be perfect going in, as pressing has an effect of getting wild within the strike zone or trying to over power hitters with a fastball you might not have. Bumgarner did pitch well against the Padres at home on May 4th, pitching 7.1 innings of shutout ball in a 2-0 win. This was a much needed performance against San Diego, as Bumgarner got lit up on the road to the tune of five earned runs in 3 IP in a 10-2 loss on April 11th.
Adding insult to injury, the Giants have averaged only 3 runs per game at home. This is one of the reasons that they are 1-9 in their last ten games at AT&T Park. I could go through all of the offensive numbers at home in the last month for the San Francisco lineup but it would be easier to sum them up in one word. Bad. It’s odd too since the Giants average over two runs more at 5.11 runs per game on the road.
The San Diego Padres' starter Odrisamer Despaigne (OD) has fantastic career numbers against the Giants. In three starts last year he went 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA. In his only action this year against the Giants OD pitched 4.2 innings of shutout ball in long relief. With a respectable 1.30 WHIP going this year, luck has been a factor in giving OD an ERA of 4.92 in 67.2 IP. The Giants as a whole have a career .101 AVG against OD, so it appears as if runs won’t come easy again for them at home on Tuesday night.
Baseball Betting Verdict
With the public's MLB picks piling on the big name of Madison Bumgarner, the money line on this game opened with the Giants getting heavy chalk at -190 at Pinnacle. At least the O/U total was reasonable at 6.5 – a line that sounds about right. I’m going to keep with the trend of fading the heavily favored ace on the run line, as the Padres can be found as low as -130 right now with +1.5 runs at Heritage. In what should be a low scoring game featuring an underdog that has had great success against the favorite, that run will be worth a lot and it won’t take much juice to buy it.
MLB Picks: Padres +1.5 -130