Baseball Betting Picks: Seattle Sails Past Minnesota in the Land of 10,000 Lakes

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, June 13, 2017 4:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 13, 2017 4:05 PM UTC

Something had to give in last night's Seattle and Minnesota matchup. The Mariners have among the poorest road records in baseball and nobody is worse playing at home than the Twins.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Tuesday Play

After scoring seven times in their previous four contests, Seattle destroyed Minnesota pitchers in a 14-3 romp. The second tilt of this four-game series goes tonight with the Twins looking to make it 1-1.

Your friendly handicapper has run into a nice 11-4 streak for MLB picks and will look to stay hot.


Pitching Matchup - Bergman vs. Gibson

Christian Bergman (3-3, 4.03 ERA) has made six starts in his seven appearances and would have a distinguished earned run average expect for May 23rd start against Washington when he was bombed for 10 runs (4 homers) in four innings. Bergman has not made this many starts since his rookie season in 2014 with Colorado. He's a fly-ball pitcher who makes plenty of mistakes, but his current .279 batting average allowed is markedly better than his career norm of .311. Bergman is facing Minnesota for the second time in five days.

After disastrous April 23rd start, Kyle Gibson's (3-4, 6.52) ERA stood at 9.00 and manager Paul Molitor had to be considering pulling him out of the rotation. Gibson's fastball lacked usual movement and his curveball has always been below average. Add in almost no command (26 walks in 48 1/3 innings) and the Twins former ace was in big trouble. However, in his last three starts, the fastball is moving again the slider has more tilt and Gibson has 2.65 ERA in past three starts, though still issuing too many free passes. Gibby is 3-2 with 2.72 ERA versus Seattle.


Mariners Offense Needs to Stabilize on the Road and Twins Have to Do Everything Better at Home

After reaching .500, Seattle lost three of five and will try and get back to level record this evening. Part of the M's road woes at 12-20 (-5.5 units) stem from offense scoring just 4.4 runs a game. Seattle's away lineup has been feast or famine, like in early May when they tallied 21 runs in two games to start the road trip and in the next four contests only scored six times. To win on the road the Mariners need consistency.

You always wonder how this can happen. Minnesota is 20-9 in the road grays, but alarming 12-19 (-8.9) at Target Field. The Twins offense slows at home (4.4 vs. 4.8 on the road), however, the real issue is pitching, permitting 6.1 RPG before their backers compared 4.2 outside the Twin Cities. Target Field is not Coors Field, dismissing that possibility. For the Twinkies to win tonight and more frequently at home, the bats and run-stoppers have to improve.


Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

The MLB odds have really changed. Seattle opened as a -115 favorite and has been adjusted to a +112 underdog and the total has climbed from 9.5 to 11. The Mariners have taken five the last eight in Minneapolis, with the UNDER 5-3. The M's bullpen only ranks 9th in the AL, but the Twins pen was rattled for five runs on Monday and is dead last in the league.


The Winner Is ...

With both starting pitchers hardly reliable and the bullpens beatable, for this game, I will lean on history. The Mariners are 11-3 away after permitting four or fewer runs in four straight contests, while the Twins are 4-16 at home after conceding 10 or more runs in a home game.

Free MLB Picks:  Seattle Money Line +115Best Lines Offered: at Bet DSI


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