Baseball Betting Made Easy: Pitchers with WHIP <1.10 Account for 74.4% Winners on the Road

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 9, 2015 2:08 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jun. 9, 2015 2:08 PM GMT

With so many factors to take into consideration when betting baseball, this handicapper is excited to share his discoveries on starting pitchers with low walks + hits per innings pitched.

In late May 2015, I authored a pair of articles regarding the WHIP in MLB. To review the concept, the WHIP is the walks + hits per innings pitched for any MLB pitcher. In the articles I proved a positive correlation between WHIPs of 1.10 or less with a pitcher’s TRGS (team record in games started). As a corollary, I proved the theory that any pitcher with as high as a 1.35 WHIP had a negative TRGS. The response to the article by the SBR community was overwhelming and positive. In taking the concept a step further, SBR Analyst Matt DeSaro researched all pitchers who had a WHIP of 1.00 or less and broke it into “splits” of home/road and day/night. As a general rule, there was a positive correlation between the best WHIP and all subsets. 

With nearly 60 games being played in the MLB season, it is time to do a further study of the WHIP, breaking these pitchers into a home/road dichotomy. This article will begin the study with all pitchers, who have a minimum of 5 starts, and have a WHIP of 1.15 or less. This will be broken down into categories of WHIP, TRGS, and personal W/L record for year to date, home and away. Conclusions will follow.

The chart will be put into a list that is alphabetized for all starters who have a WHIP of 1.15 or less. 

Pitcher

YTD

WHIP

YTD

TRGS

YTD

W/L

HOME

WHIP

HOMW

TRGS

HOME

W/L

AWAY

WHIP

AWAY

TRGS

AWAY

W/L

Archer

0.95

8-5

7-4

1.10

3-4

2-3

0.81

5-1

5-1

Arrieta

1.09

6-5

5-4

1.01

2-4

2-3

1.19

4-1

3-1

Bettis

1.11

5-0

2-0

1.18

3-0

1-0

1.00

2-0

1-0

Bolsinger

1.07

3-3

3-1

0.66

3-0

3-0

1.56

0-3

0-1

Bumgarner

1.07

8-4

7-2

1.04

3-3

2-1

1.10

5-1

5-1

Cole

1.12

9-3

9-2

1.08

4-1

4-1

1.14

5-2

5-1

Colon

1.14

8-4

8-4

1.23

5-2

5-2

1.01

3-2

3-2

Cueto

0.95

6-5

4-4

0.75

4-1

2-1

1.11

2-4

2-3

DeGrom

1.00

8-4

7-4

0.87

6-1

5-1

1.19

2-3

2-3

M Gonzalez

1.11

6-5

5-4

0.81

5-1

4-0

1.62

1-4

1-4

Gray

0.92

7-5

7-2

0.65

3-2

3-1

1.15

4-3

4-1

Greinke

0.95

8-4

5-1

0.94

4-4

2-1

0.98

4-0

3-0

Hahn

1.13

3-8

3-5

0.97

1-5

1-2

1.33

2-3

2-3

Hamels

1.11

7-5

5-4

1.00

4-3

2-2

1.25

3-2

3-2

Hammel

0.89

6-5

5-2

0.85

2-2

1-0

0.92

4-3

4-2

Harang

1.07

5-7

4-6

0.88

3-3

2-3

1.28

2-4

2-3

Haren

1.07

8-3

6-2

1.01

5-1

3-0

1.15

3-2

3-2

F Hernandez

0.96

10-2

9-2

0.94

5-2

5-2

0.98

5-0

4-0

Kershaw

1.06

7-5

5-3

0.89

5-1

4-1

1.24

2-4

1-2

Keuchel

0.92

9-3

7-1

0.98

5-2

5-0

0.85

4-1

2-1

Kluber

1.13

3-9

3-6

1.19

2-3

2-2

1.10

1-4

1-4

Liriano

1.05

3-8

3-4

1.26

1-4

1-3

0.92

2-4

2-1

Miller

1.00

8-3

5-2

1.00

3-1

2-1

0.99

5-2

3-1

Morrow

1.09

5-0

2-0

1.07

4-0

2-0

1.17

1-0

0-0

Odorizzi

1.02

6-6

4-5

0.88

2-3

1-2

1.12

4-3

3-3

Salazar

1.15

8-2

6-1

0.90

3-1

3-0

1.33

5-1

3-1

Sale

1.05

7-3

5-2

1.17

3-2

1-1

0.92

4-1

4-1

Scherzer

0.92

7-4

6-4

0.89

3-3

3-3

0.94

4-1

3-1

Tanaka

0.82

4-1

3-1

1.56

1-1

1-1

0.49

3-0

2-0

Vogelsong

1.14

6-4

4-4

0.77

3-1

1-1

1-44

3-3

3-3

Volquez

1.13

7-4

4-4

1.09

5-2

4-2

1.21

2-2

0-3

Wacha

1.04

10-1

8-1

0.91

3-1

2-1

1.02

7-0

6-0

 

Much like our chart of late May, we find that home or road there is a definitive break in our starting pitchers records at the 1.10 WHIP level. Starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or less have a 147-86 (63.1%) TRGS and 118-57 (67.4%) personal W/L record. 

Regarding the hypothesized home/road dichotomy of the starters, there is a definitive distinction to keep in mind when making your MLB picks. Home teams are winning approximately 54% of the games in MLB this season. Of our 32 pitchers on our list, only 6 of these pitchers, when starting at home, have a WHIP of 1.10 or higher. The record of home pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or less is 93-50 (65.0%) with a personal W/L record of 69-30 (69.7%).

But the real distinction comes on the road. 17 of our 32 pitchers with a ytd WHIP of 1.15 or less have a whip of greater than 1.10 when pitching on the road. Focusing our attention on the remaining 15 pitchers in our sample, we find that all MLB starting pitchers with a minimum of 5 starts who have an away WHIP of less than 1.10 are a sterling 58-20 trgs for 74.4% winners when pitching on the road. With shorter prices on the MLB odds when on the road, those numbers are clearly something you can take to the bank. 

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