Banking Off Sunday's Shaky Pitchers with MLB Picks Over Totals

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, June 28, 2015 12:45 PM GMT

With so many ways to bet on baseball, it is valuable to have an experienced handicapper dissect the lines, trends, stats and probabilities. Ross Benjamin has done just that today as he shares his MLB picks for Sunday.

Royals (Guthrie) vs. A’s (Chavez) 4:05 PM ET
Jeremy Guthrie has struggled this season and especially so on the road. Guthrie has a huge 8.15 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in seven road starts. He’s made six day game starts and hasn’t been much better in those outings, posting a large 6.19 ERA in addition to a 1.81 WHIP.

Jesse Chavez has been in shaky form in his last four starts, compiling a lofty 5.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. The A’s are coming off a 3-2 loss on Saturday, and they’ve gone 10-2 over the total this season following a game in which they scored 3 runs or less. Those 12 games averaged a combined 10.4 runs scored per contest. According to Wagerweb, Oakland is a -160 money line favorite today. They’ve gone 30-15 (66.7%) over the total this season as a money line favorite of -110 or more. The A’s are also 43-28 (60.6%) over the total in 2015, and that includes 22-13 (62.9%) over at home.

Neither one of these starting pitchers recent performance lines translate to this total being such a low number, and especially in an American League game. The Royals are averaging a very respectable 4.8 runs per game, and possess a stellar team batting average of .283 when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. I like this to be a high scoring game, and one of my MLB picks on Sunday will reflect that prediction. Pinnacle provides me with the optimum combination of number and price on this total.

MLB Picks: Play on the Royals and A’s over 7.5 

 

Diamondbacks (Anderson) vs. Padres (Despaigne) 4:10 PM ET
Chase Anderson had a tough time in his last four starts on the road, evidenced by a sizable 6.08 ERA in those outings. Anderson is 0-3 in his team starts during day games this year, and posted a less than impressive 4.24 ERA. Arizona has gone 5-2 over the total in their last seven, and there was a combined average of 10.4 runs per game scored.

Odraisamer Despaigne has been shaky in his last four starts with a lofty 5.02 ERA during that span. The Padres have an outstanding .437 slugging percentage over their previous seven games. San Diego has gone 47-29 (61.8%) over the total this season, and that includes 23-13 (63.9%) over at home.

I’m leaning toward this game being a high scoring affair. Bookmaker is going to receive my call for that wager based on the price being offered.

MLB Picks: Play on the Diamondbacks and Padres over 7.5