Baltimore's Bullpens Suggest Playing O's & 'Over' as Best Bet Against Tigers

Darin Zank

Saturday, August 1, 2015 12:39 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 1, 2015 12:39 PM UTC

Baltimore and Detroit have played two wild games at Camden Yards this week, and Saturday could bring another one. Looks like another good spot for an OVER.

Tigers-Orioles Saturday Odds
As of early Saturday morning the best price we could find on Baltimore and Kevin Gausman was the -137 offered at 5Dimes, which was also offering Detroit and Anibal Sanchez at +132. And our entire MLB odds board listed a total on tonight's game of 8.5 runs.


The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, after Baltimore's 8-7 victory Friday night. The O's trailed 6-0 after three and a half innings Friday, but scored once in the fourth, three times in the fifth and four times in the sixth to take the lead, and hung on from there. So the Orioles have won six of their last seven games, while Detroit has lost six of its last nine.

At 52-50 Baltimore still trails New York by six games in the AL East, but sits just one game behind Minnesota in the race for the second American League wild-card spot.

At 50-53 Detroit is not going to catch Kansas City in the AL Central, but still only trails the Twins by 3.5 games in that wild-card race.

The O's have taken three of five games from the Tigers this season, with the OVERS going 4-1.

On the personnel front Detroit, which already traded away starter David Price, sent OF Yoenis Cedpedes to the Mets Friday for a couple Minor League pitchers.

Baltimore, meanwhile just added OF Gerardo Parra, who was hitting .328 with Milwaukee, and he could be in the lineup today.


Saturday's Starters
Gausman (1-2, 4.20) is two-for-five on quality starts this season, to go along with eight appearances in relief. Monday he tossed 7 2/3 innings of shutout ball against Atlanta, which was a welcome rebound after giving up 11 earned runs in his previous two starts, against Minnesota and the Yankees. On the season Gausman has allowed 38 hits through 41 innings, walked 12 and struck out 34.

Baltimore is 2-3 in Gausman's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 4-1 margin.

Gausman last started against Detroit back in May of last season, when he gave up five runs in four innings of a 7-5 Orioles loss. But he also held the Tigers to one run through 3 2/3 innings in a relief appearance in the ALDS last October.

Sanchez (10-8, 4.61) is ten-for-21 on quality starts, but just one for his last six, even though the Tigers have won eight of his last nine outings. Monday he gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings against Tampa, and over his last six starts he's allowed 20 earned runs through 38 2/3 innings (4.66 ERA). On the season Sanchez has given up 128 hits, including 22 homers, through 137 innings, walked 43 and struck out 121.

Detroit is 11-10 in games Sanchez has started, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS 13-6.

Sanchez has started twice against Baltimore over the last season-plus, allowing four runs and 10 hits through 10 innings; the Tigers won both those games, and both games played OVER.


Saturday's Batting Splits
Detroit ranks second in the Majors against right-handed pitching this season with a .276 team batting average, and second with a .329 team on-base percentage.

Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 17th against righties with a .252 batting average and 19th with a .311 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 28-23 in games played at Camden Yards this season, which are averaging 9.0 runs per.


Injury Update
Detroit is now 10-14, averaging 4.8 runs per game, since slugger Miguel Cabrera hit the disabled list with that pulled calf muscle.


Tigers-Orioles Saturday Free Picks
Baltimore rallied from way back to win last night, and nearly did the same thing the night before. That Detroit bullpen makes every game interesting. On the other hand Baltimore’s bullpen ranks among the best in baseball, and this game could come down to the pens. We like the O's tonight. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 5-4, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Baltimore and OVER 8.5 runs (-105) at Pinnacle

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