The 2016 MLB season starts in a bit more than two weeks and the LT Profits Group are profiling all 30 teams to help with your MLB picks, today examining at the Baltimore Orioles.
We are now just a bit more than two weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, as it kicks off with three games on Sunday, April 3rd, followed by the rest of the league starting play Monday, April 4th. And in an attempt to assist with your MLB picks, we are here profiling all 30 Major League Baseball teams before the season’s first pitch is thrown, today looking at the Baltimore Orioles, who finished in third place in the American League East in 2015 at 81-81.
For starters, here is a summary of the Baltimore betting statistics for the 2015 season. Note that these stats are always for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports.
Baltimore Orioles 2015 Betting Stats
The truth of the matter is that the peripheral numbers for the Orioles have been very close over each of the last three seasons, but after overachieving vs. those peripherals in the previous two years, Baltimore finished more in line with them last season as the greatness of Manager Buck Showalter did not add as many wins this time around. Also take note of the severe home vs. away splits from a betting perspective.
Now we move on to the Orioles’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.
2015 Baltimore Orioles Team Statistics
|Runs per Game||4.40||9th|
The approach for the Orioles has been the same for quite a few years now as this is a team that will hit a ton of home runs and scored lots of runs, and then hope the suspect starting pitching does not give those runs back before getting to a very good bullpen. Unfortunately, Lady Luck was not quite as kind to the Orioles last season as it was the previous two years.
2016 Baltimore Orioles World Series Futures
Last year, the Steamer Ratings forecasted that the Orioles would finish a shade above .500, and again unlike the previous two years, this time the Steamer was basically right on with Baltimore finishing right at .500 at 81-81. Well, this season brings a Steamer prediction of 83.14, which is actually higher than the current posted Baltimore win total of 79½. Thus, another .500 season in 2016 is not out of the question.
2016 Baltimore Orioles Batting Forecast
The Orioles re-signed Chris Davis to a huge contract this off-season, a move that was not met with universal praise. The problem is not that Davis is a bad hitter or anything, as the ZiPS projections are forecasting him for a 3.8 WAR this season, second highest on the team behind budding superstar Manny Machado (5.9), but rather many thought that the money could have been better spent on a couple of players, especially with offense going cheap this off-season.
The third part of the Baltimore Big Three this season is Adam Jones and his 3.5 WAR, but then what? Even with the great starting point, the entire Baltimore offense adds up to a total projected WAR of only around 27. As a frame of reference, the cumulative WAR was 34 for the Orioles last year before their 81-win season.
2016 Baltimore Orioles Pitching Forecast
The biggest new acquisition for the Orioles this off-season was Yovani Gallardo, who is currently penciled in as the third starter but has the potential to end up being the ace of a mediocre staff. Current plans are to start Chris Tillman on opening day followed by Miguel Gonzalez as the second starter, but both of those hurlers were erratic last season as was another returnee in Ubaldo Jimenez.
Also keep an eye on Kevin Gausman, who may be ready to fulfill his vast potential after showing nice flashes over the last couple of seasons. As for the bullpen, that unit should again be very good as a whole after re-signing Darren O’Day, who servers as an excellent set-up man for closer Zach Britton, who himself flourished after being placed in that closer role last season.