Backing Ace Archer, Host Rays, Fading Road-Pathetic Orioles the Play in Tampa on Friday

Kevin Stott

Thursday, June 22, 2017 8:07 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 22, 2017 8:07 PM UTC

Adam Jones and the Orioles have lost 16 of their L18 Road games and seem like auto-fade material until Buck Showalter proves his team can win away from Baltimore, so backing the Rays and ace Chris Archer in Game 1 on Friday night seems like a logical pick.

Odds Overview

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (Fox Sports Sun, MASN2, DTV 641, 7:10 pm ET): RHP Ubaldo Jiménez and the Orioles (35-36) face RHP Chris Archer and the Rays (39-36) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg on Friday in Game 1 of this 3-game AL East series. Sportsbook BetOnline has opened the Rays up as solid -170—it shot up 30 cents in 10 minutes to -200 as Wiseguys pounded the hosts after open—with the Total (Runs) set at 9 (BetOnline) and the Run Line market seeing Tampa Bay -1½ +120 with Baltimore +1½ -140 ( Baltimore is scheduled to throw Dylan Bundy (7-6) vs. the impressive Jacob Faria (3-0. 0.97 ERA) in Game 2 on Saturday (4:10 pm EDT) with Chris Tillman (1-5, 2.17 WHIP) slated to go against Jake Odorizzi (4-3) in Sunday’s Game 3 (1:10 pm EDT).


Baltimore Orioles

At one point (May 9), the Orioles  had the best Record in MLB at 22-10 but since then, Baltimore (320 RF-380 RA, -60 RD) has gone 13-26 (.333) and heading into play Thursday night. In Game 3 of a 4-game series in Crab City vs. the defending AL-champion Indians, O’s Manager Buck Showalter had a Starting Lineup of: RF Smith, SS Machado, 2B Schoop, DH Trumbo, 1B Mancini, C Castillo, LF Kim, 3B Tejada, CF Gentry with Drew Miley starting.

Baltimore  is 5-2 L7 on AstroTurf but 6-20 L26 Road games, 0-5 L5 Game 1’s and 1-10 L11 on the Road against Winning Teams. The Over is 4-0 L4 Orioles games vs. the AL East and in Game 1’s while the Under is 6-2 in Baltimore’s L8 on AstroTurf and 5-2 L7 Friday games.

 Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays now sit quietly just 3 games out of first place in the AL East behind the Yankees and Red Sox, but the 23-16 Home mark in The Juice Box will have to get better for this team to make the Postseason. But if there’s one team that may surprise and earn a Wild Card berth or maybe even win the division, this could be it. In Game 3 vs. the Reds on Wednesday, Rays Manager Kevin Cash’s Starting Lineup read: LF Smith, DH Dickerson, RF Souza, Jr., 1B Morrison, 3B Plouffe, SS Robertson, 2B Featherston, CF Bourjos, C Sucre with getting the start. Smith, Souza Jr. and Morrison all has 2 hits with Souza Jr. and Morrison both having 2 RBI in a 8-3 win that gave the Rays the series, 2-1.

Tampa Bay  is 8-2 its L11 on AstroTurf, 7-2 L9 at Home in St. Pete and 4-1 L5 overall. The Over is 8-0 the L8 Tampa Bay Home games vs. Teams with Road Winning Percentages below .400—Baltimore is 11-23 on the Road, the 2nd-worst mark in the Junior Circuit—and the Over is 42-20-2 L44 Game 1’s and 18-7-1 L26 Friday games for the Rays who exorcised the “Devil” from their name in 2008—the same year we all saw how ugly Wall Street was when he was naked.

 No Scorching Weather To Worry About Playing in The Juice Box, Series Trends

Tampa projected starter Chris Archer (5-4, 3.75 ERA) has now had 24 straight 100-pitch games for the Rays (12/1 to win AL East, Bovada), and in his last outing, the righty ace picked up his first Win since May 26, whiffing 8 and allowing just 2 ER in a 3-2 victory over Detroit. O’s RHP Ubaldo Jiménez (2-2, 6.25 ERA) also looked good in his last start, going 7 IP to earn the Win vs. St. Louis after his four previous appearances came out of the Baltimore Bullpen.

Series-wise, it’s been all birds in this AL East one of late, with the Orioles going 13-5 L18 meetings (72.2%) and 5-2 L7 in The Big Guava. The Under is 11-5-1 L17 in Tampa in the climate-controlled indoor confines of Tropicana Field. So this is a collision between Art and Science with the older Trends saying take the Underdog Orioles and the Under while the newer numbers say take the home chalk and the Over. Here, Art is the choice simply because of Recency, with Rays Overs going 17-5-1 the L23 (77.3%) and that Baltimore 2-16 L18 Road mark (11.1%) the two biggest factors in a game which should be approached cautiously, with some value potentially sapped away from the chalks in the early 30-cent mover from -170 to -200 at open on Thursday afternoon. He who hesitates...

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Rays 6 Orioles 5Free MLB Picks: Rays -200 & Over 9Best Lines Offered: at BetOnline

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