Back These Early MLB Betting Lines To Get The Edge For Thursday

Ian Cameron

Wednesday, May 11, 2016 7:38 PM GMT

Our capper provides a look at some excellent value games for Thursday's extensive baseball's slate. Go inside to get the betting edge and find some profitable MLB picks today! 

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
I’m still locked into ‘fade Mike Pelfrey’ mode once again in this game as we look at the Detroit Tigers facing the Baltimore Orioles. I posted winning side and total recommendations against Mike Pelfrey in his last start against Texas as we cashed in with the Rangers and the Over in that game. I’m looking to take a similar path in this game here.

Pelfrey has been beyond abysmal in recent outings allowing 4+ runs in five of his six starts with a 6.23 ERA on the season giving up 26 runs on 44 hits and 6 homers in 30.1 innings of work with as many walks as strikeouts (15). His problems with being hit hard and allowing the long ball are not likely to be helped by the fact he is pitching against a power laden Orioles lineup in a hitter friendly place like Camden Yards.

On the flip side, Ubaldo Jimenez is slated currently as the Baltimore starter in this game. For the most part, he’s had a solid season although he did recently get pounded by the White Sox in this ballpark for 6 runs in 4.2 innings of work. He bounced back in his last outing against Oakland to allow just 2 runs in 8 innings but that was against a light hitting Athletics squad. Jimenez got smacked around in his lone start against Detroit last August which came here at Camden Yards when he allowed 6 runs in just 4.2 innings.

The Tigers might be able to score some runs here too as even though Jimenez has been solid most of this season, he’s still somewhat that is a bit too erratic for me to trust especially here against a lineup that hammered him last season. I’m going to recommend this game to go Over the total of 9.5 runs and also to consider betting the Orioles team total Over as well once those #’s become available as I expect another very rough night at the office for Mike Pelfrey and a suspect Tigers bullpen behind him. Get the Over 9.5 -108 (at Heritage) as your MLB pick and also back the Baltimore Team Total Over once team totals become available at Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Dallas Keuchel and David Price were both expected to be among the best pitchers in MLB here in 2016. So far, that hasn’t been the case. Keuchel has been hit hard allowing 23 runs on 48 hits in 44.1 innings pitched this season for a 4.70 ERA and an unusually high # of walks at 19. He has been a histrocially worse pitcher on the road than at home and with the way the Red Sox lineup has been mashing the baseball (scoring 65 runs in their last 10 games), this could be another rough start for the Astros ace.

However, David Price isn’t one bit more trustworthy to pitch well here for Boston. Price has not lived up at all to his monster 7 year, $217 million contract signed in the offseason and he has not been a good fit for Fenway Park at all as evidenced by his horrific 8.34 ERA in 4 home starts allowing nearly a run per inning at home yielding 21 runs on 27 hits and 4 home runs in 22.2 innings pitched at Fenway.

Houston as a team does have a better batting average and more runs per game scored against lefties this season so they should have a good chance for plate success against Price in this matchup. Houston has trended 10-5 to the Over in 15 road games this season while Boston is 3-1 to the Over in Price’s 4 home starts and 6-1 to the Over in his 7 starts overall. This total is sitting where it is at 8 due to the name recognition of both Keuchel and Price but reputation isn’t matching the current reality with either of these starters right now and that provides value to bet this game Over the total on the MLB odds.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8
Best Line Offered: at Heritage