Back Rockies vs. Cardinals to Go 'Under' the Total in De La Rosa-Lynn Matchup

Charles Stark

Saturday, August 1, 2015 12:10 AM GMT

Saturday, Aug. 1, 2015 12:10 AM GMT

These teams might be going in opposite directions but I think that we have a solid pitching matchup today to back the under when the Rockies and Cardinals meet in St. Louis.

Odds
I think this is an interesting matchup today with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies. On one hand you have the Cardinals looking like a World Series team, and on the other hand you have the Rockies, who just traded away their best player and are looking towards the future.

Oddsmakers came out with this line at 7.5, with the under having more juice on it at around -120 MLB odds. I am not a big proponent of paying juice when you don't have to but I think that in this situation, with two quality pitchers the value is okay to go ahead and take a shot at under this total. At Pinnacle they do have the under of 7.5 at -115, and you can also get this at the same juice at Heritage Sports.

 

Pitching Matchup
Jorge De La Rosa gets the start for the Colorado Rockies, and he comes in with a 5.03 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He is also coming off two horrible starts. In those last two games he allowed a total of 12 earned runs (six each game) in just nine innings to the Rangers in Colorado and at Chicago. That kind of game in Colorado simply happens sometimes so I won't hold that against him so much, but in this last game against the Cubs, what I see now is a chance for him to bounce back in a playoff-like atmosphere. He is a veteran pitcher so don't count him out to not pitch well today against the Cardinals. He has already pitched well against them once this season and on the road he has a solid 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Lance Lynn takes the hill for the Cardinals and he is having a fantastic season with a 2.71 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Unlike De La Rosa he has pitched well recently, the same as he has all season, and after a tough outing in Pittsburgh four games ago, in his last three games he is only allowed four earned runs in 20 innings off of just 15 hits. At home he has been lights out with a 1.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, so I look for him to continue his dominance in St. Louis and have a quality start today.

 

At the Plate
For how strong of a season they are having, the St. Louis Cardinals are ranked as more of a middle-tiered offense as far as statistics are concerned, and the Rockies are a completely different team away from Colorado. The Cardinals rank 19th in the league in runs scored per game and Colorado ranks third, but not surprisingly the Rockies are ranked 22nd away from home. In OPS the Cardinals are again ranked more in the middle-tiered at 15th and the Rockies rank second, but yet again away from home the Rockies are ranked in the middle of the league at 16th. Altogether we have two pretty decent hitting teams, but also two teams that can get shut down by two quality pitchers like we will see today.

This a good matchup, and a good bounce back spot for De La Rosa. For me he is the key to getting under this total today because it seems like Lynn will continue his strong performance at home. Look for them to have a quality start today against these two subpar offenses to get this under the 7.5. Back the under with confidence.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at BetOnline 

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